AEX course light red: ASML and ASMI hit hard

The AEX price started today with a slight decline on the new trading day. This decrease is due, among other things, to red figures among the chippers in the Netherlands. ASML has to swallow a decline of more than 2 percent towards Wednesday morning's quarterly figures, while ASMI is also down by 2.60 percent.

Clearly, investors are once again having doubts about the AI narrative. Just before the season of quarterly figures kicks off on the stock market. On Wednesday morning, it will be ASML's turn to present the figures for the past quarter.

While expectations are still quite high, investors are clearly beginning to doubt the sustainability of the AI investment cycle.

Especially in the light of rising bond yields. Worldwide, interest rates are reaching levels not seen since the beginning of this millennium.

This basically means that the financing costs of AI investments increase, which means that they have to generate higher returns in order to be profitable. There it seems to be wringing cautiously for many investors, because the AI stock market is clearly tougher.

The new inflation figures from the Netherlands also give investors little reason for optimism. According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), inflation rose to 3.4 percent in September, compared to 3.3 percent in August. This keeps inflation stubbornly high, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is trying to reduce price increases to 2 percent.

Rising energy prices in particular play an important role. Diesel was no less than 27.2 percent more expensive in September than a year earlier. Gasoline also became considerably more expensive. Drivers paid an average of 2.45 euros for a litre of petrol, compared to 2.33 euros in August. Groceries, on the other hand, became cheaper.

In the rest of the eurozone, the situation is even more worrying. According to the European measurement method, inflation there rose from 3.2 percent in August to 3.8 percent in September. This is almost double the ECB's inflation target and shows how strongly the rising energy prices continue to affect the European economy.

This is not good news for investors. The combination of rising inflation and rising bond yields makes it more difficult for the ECB to support the economy with lower interest rates. In fact, if inflation remains persistently high, the central bank may be forced to raise interest rates further. This could further increase financing costs for companies and put additional pressure on the stock market.