There's an election next month: State of Crypto

The U.S. is holding its midterm election in a month, on November 3. The results will determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the House of Representatives and the Senate, and that in turn will determine what next year looks like for crypto (and, I suppose, other) industries.

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The narrative

The midterm election is on Nov. 3, 2026. As of Friday, Oct. 2, 2026, polls suggest that Democrats will flip the U.S. House of Representatives, while the Senate is a tossup.

Why it matters

While much of the crypto industry is looking to what federal regulators will do in the wake of last month's Clarity Act collapse, Congress will still play some important roles next year. Lawmakers are now looking more deeply at crypto tax legislation, and there will likely be hearings.

Breaking it down

A month out from the election, and polling (and recent headlines) suggest that Democrats are currently on the upswing. A consensus poll on the site 270towin suggests that Democrats will flip the House of Representatives, but that it's hard to tell where the Senate may land.

For what it's worth, as of 5:00 p.m. ET on Friday, bettors on prediction market provider Kalshi suggest Democrats will flip the House and the Senate. Ditto on Polymarket.

Just to briefly lay out the stakes of the election: The makeup of the next Congress will shape how regulators are overseen, whether we get any further crypto legislation in the near-term and just what crypto companies will need to do to maintain relationships with the majority parties.

While the Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury Department and other agencies will be working on rulemaking efforts over the next year, obviously Congress has a pretty big role in overseeing these regulators. The Clarity Act, in part, was intended to define how these agencies could interact with crypto, and Congress will also need to okay these regulators' budgets next year.

We'll also see where Congress lands on legislation. Lawmakers may take up a new market structure bill, though it's unclear how that may go. What is more certain is that Congress will work on tax legislation. The House Ways and Means Committee passed a crypto tax bill last month on a major bipartisan basis, and Senator Steve Daines introduced a crypto tax bill to the Senate last week.