Stablecoin contraction forces Bitcoin drop despite Fed reserve gains
The dated comparison pairs a reserve rebound with shrinking dollar-token circulation, leaving the link to Bitcoin buying unestablished. Read the full story on CryptoSlateUnderstand the crypto stories that matter and what to watch next. Get The Catalyst in your inbox
Bank reserve balances rose $67.5 billion between Oct. 28 and Nov. 4, according to the Federal Reserve’s Nov. 5 release, but the more abundant dollar liquidity is not automatically bullish for Bitcoin.
Over the same period, data provider DefiLlama tracked dollar-pegged stablecoin circulation falling by more than 5.7 billion units, or 1.91%.
The split leaves an incomplete picture for a Bitcoin recovery. Higher bank reserve balances would still need to translate into financing and purchases, so the measured token contraction adds a crypto-side observation to that test.
A Nov. 5 Treasury-cash analysis considered a possible December funding window using projected cash paths and the older Oct. 28 reserve baseline. The new release updates that starting point with a rebound in realized reserves.
Coinbase's completed Nov. 5 daily BTC-USD candle closed at $75,969.06, down 5.54% from $80,428.31 on Nov. 4. That close-to-close fall followed the dated reserve observation, putting the price move outside the bank-balance comparison window.
The Fed’s H.4.1 release puts Nov. 4 reserve balances at $2.96 trillion. Over the preceding week, the Treasury General Account, the government’s account at the Fed, fell $79.4 billion to $936.2 billion.
Treasury payments move balances into depository institutions’ accounts, increasing reserves all else equal, while receipts flowing into Treasury’s account work in the opposite direction.
The final reserve change also incorporates movements elsewhere on the Fed’s balance sheet. Total assets rose $2.5 billion, while other balance-sheet changes offset part of the effect of the Treasury-account drawdown.
Tether’s USDT series fell 3.65 billion units, accounting for 63.37% of that measured contraction, while USD Coin (USDC) circulation declined 383 million units, contributing 6.64%. Other tracked dollar-pegged tokens together contracted a net 1.73 billion units.
Related ReadingThe issuer breakdown locates the largest measured change in USDT. Whether, and to what extent, issuer redemptions, bridge-accounting adjustments, reclassification, or coverage revisions contributed remains unquantified.