JPMorgan models Bitcoin reaching $385,000 in 10-year bull case despite CEO Jamie Dimon’s criticism

JP Morgan Asset Management sees Bitcoin potentially reaching $215,000 within a decade, despite CEO Jamie Dimon's longstanding criticism of the cryptocurrency.

The Wall Street firm's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released Oct. 19, outlined three scenarios for Bitcoin's performance over the next decade, ranging from a collapse toward $25,000 to a rally approaching $386,000.

Its base case assumes BTC generates compound annual returns of 10%, implying a price of about $215,300 from the report's $83,000 reference price.

The bullish scenario projects annualized returns of 16.6%, taking Bitcoin toward $385,500, while the bearish case assumes yearly losses of 11.2%, reducing its value to roughly $25,300.

The projections mark J.P. Morgan Asset Management's first long-term Bitcoin scenario analysis in its 31-year annual outlook history, reflecting the cryptocurrency's growing importance to institutional investors.

Bitcoin's projected 10% annual return exceeds the firm's 7.5% assumption for US large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold. However, its estimated annualized volatility of 55% is more than three times the 18% projected for American equities.

The firm considers it premature to adopt a definitive 10-year Bitcoin forecast for strategic portfolio construction, instead presenting the estimates as potential outcomes under different market conditions.

The report identifies monetary expansion and competition with gold as the dominant forces behind Bitcoin's long-term valuation.

Its forecasting framework assigns 65% of its weighting to Bitcoin's supply growth relative to US dollar and global money supply expansion, while another 30% reflects its potential to attract investment traditionally allocated to gold.

The firm assigns only 5% to Bitcoin network adoption, which produces a -3.2% annualized return under its base scenario.