CryptoQuant CEO sees $30,000 Bitcoin floor even if ETFs and treasury firms exit

Bitcoin could find support near $30,000 even if institutional investors unwind their accumulated exposure, CryptoQuant's chief executive argues.

The scenario would require reversing roughly $58 billion in net inflows to US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and selling the 1.3 million BTC publicly traded companies have accumulated. Yet CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes Bitcoin's on-chain investor cost basis would still support prices about three times McGlone's $10,000 crash forecast.

“Even if all of it leaves, on-chain cost basis still puts the floor near $30k,” Ju wrote on X on Oct. 16, responding to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone.

The scale of that hypothetical retreat is substantial. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $56.95 billion in cumulative net inflows through Oct. 16, according to Farside Investors, while CoinGecko tracks 1.302 million BTC across 180 public-company treasuries. Those corporate holdings represent about 6.2% of Bitcoin's maximum supply and are worth approximately $106 billion at recent prices.

Michael Saylor-led Strategy alone owns 848,250 BTC, accounting for roughly 65% of the public-company total. Its position means any broad corporate retreat would be heavily shaped by the financing decisions of a single company, even as dozens of smaller treasury firms face their own market and liquidity pressures.

Bitcoin was trading near $82,000 over the weekend after slipping below $80,000 during the week's selloff. A fall to $30,000 would erase roughly 63% of its value from that level, making Ju's estimate a severe bear-market outcome despite its distance from McGlone's prediction.

Ju's assessment rests on Bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value ratio, or MVRV, which compares its prevailing market capitalization with the aggregate value of coins at the prices they last moved on-chain. The latter measure produces a realized price often used as a gauge of investors' collective cost basis.

Bitcoin's realized price stood near $53,855 on Oct. 18, according to Perly's on-chain data. Using that realized price as a fixed reference, a $30,000 market price would put MVRV around 0.56, a reading associated with particularly deep capitulation. McGlone's $10,000 target would put the ratio near 0.19. Realized price would itself change as coins moved during a selloff.