Fed Minutes at 8:00 PM: What's at Stake for Stocks, Bitcoin and Gold

The minutes of the US central bank's interest rate meeting in September will appear tonight. These can become important for stocks, gold, Bitcoin (BTC) and especially the bond market.

At the meeting of 15 and 16 September, the US central bank under chairman Kevin Warsh unanimously raised the policy rate by 25 basis points. Policymakers also indicated that there would probably be one more interest rate hike in 2026. The minutes will appear today at 20:00 Dutch time.

However, since that meeting, the picture has changed. The US labour market weakened sharply and PCE inflation was also softer than expected. As a result, the market expectation for a new rate hike in October has fallen sharply.

Investors are therefore mainly looking at how big the support within the US central bank was for another interest rate hike.

If the minutes show that several policymakers already doubted further tightening in September, this confirms the current market expectation.

A clearly aggressive tone can have the opposite effect and push the likelihood of an increase back up at the end of October.

In addition, it will be interesting to see how policymakers look at the rapidly rising US bond yields.

The 10-year interest rate is now well above 5 percent. As a result, financial conditions have already become significantly tighter, even without additional Fed rate hikes.

This affects mortgages, corporate loans, valuations on the stock market and ultimately economic growth.

Recent statements by US central bankers also point to less haste. John Williams and Vice President Philip Jefferson, among others, have indicated that there is no immediate need to raise again quickly.

The minutes are partially outdated, because the weaker economic figures only appeared after the September meeting. Nevertheless, they do show how convinced policymakers were at the time of that additional interest rate hike.

A milder tone can further depress short-term interest rates and the dollar and support gold, stocks and Bitcoin.

But if the Fed continues to warn of persistent inflation, especially due to high energy prices, the bond market could come under pressure again.

Tonight's main question is therefore not what the US central bank did in September, but how much conviction there really was behind that announced additional interest rate hike.