Bitcoin Price on Track for Best Third Quarter in 9 Years

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for its best third quarter in nine years. The Bitcoin price has risen by more than 40 percent since early July, outperforming its typical performance during this period.

Still, the coming days will be crucial. In addition to the close of September and the quarter, new U.S. inflation and labor market figures will be released, while analysts are keeping a close eye on one key price level.

Bitcoin closed at $84,450 last week. That was the highest weekly close since late January. Afterward, the price came under pressure again, and BTC dropped to around $82,550 yesterday, partly due to renewed uncertainty surrounding the conflict between the United States and Iran.

The Bitcoin price has since recovered to around $84,000.

This means Bitcoin is still up by more than 40 percent since early July. If that return holds, this will be the best third quarter since 2017.

This is remarkable, as this period has historically been much weaker. According to data from CoinGlass, the third quarter has yielded an average return of about 8.6 percent since 2013.

Tomorrow, Bitcoin will close out both September and the third quarter. It will be particularly interesting to see where the price ends relative to a number of key levels.

For example, Bitcoin started 2026 around $88,700. A close above that level would mean that BTC is once again trading higher than at the start of the year. Additionally, the average purchase price for investors in U.S. Bitcoin ETFs is around $86,000.

On the downside, $80,500 is particularly significant. According to the analysis, the average purchase price of companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets is around that level. A drop below that level would mean these companies would, on average, be operating at a loss.

The U.S. economy could also influence Bitcoin this week. New PCE inflation figures will be released tomorrow. This inflation gauge plays a key role in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

The market currently estimates a roughly 70 percent chance that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in October. A week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, that probability was still around 58 percent.

In addition, new figures on the U.S. labor market will be released on Friday. Stronger numbers could reinforce expectations of further interest rate hikes. That could put pressure on risky investments such as Bitcoin.

Technical analyst Rekt Capital is focusing primarily on the level around $82,500. He compares the current movement to Bitcoin’s recovery following the 2022 bear market.

At that time, Bitcoin broke out of a so-called inverse head and shoulders pattern, followed by a longer period of little price movement. After that, a new strong rally began.

According to Rekt Capital, $82,500 is now playing a similar role. Bitcoin would need to hold this level as support to further confirm the pattern.

If it fails to do so, he sees room for a larger pullback. “If Bitcoin fails to turn $82,500 into support, there is a chance the price could drop back to a level between $60,000 and $80,000,” the analyst said.