AEX price falls, despite sharp rise in ASML

The AEX price started today with light red figures on the new stock market week, despite ASML and other chippers being able to record considerable increases. It is this week waiting for important inflation figures from the United States, where the much-discussed interest rate decision of the US central bank awaits next week.

The chippers are not responsible for the AEX. The large ASML started the trade fair week with an increase of more than 1.5 percent. In this way, the AI companies thus provide a positive stimulus on the Dutch stock exchange.

We are seeing even greater increases today at BESI and ASMI. Despite the Brent oil price trading above $95 a barrel again due to the Iran war, investors remain confident in the AI bull market.

Given the past quarterly earnings season, that shouldn't come as a big surprise. For the time being, the tech giants continue to amaze with rock-solid profit figures and growth does not yet appear to be on the cards.

Nevertheless, the rise in bond yields, and thus the financing costs for AI investments, can become a problem.

This week, from a macroeconomic perspective, we are waiting for the important consumer price index (CPI) from the United States. In doing so, it will be particularly interesting to see to what extent rising oil prices will have an effect on broader inflation.

Investors will therefore focus on core inflation (Core CPI), which does not include energy prices. If it turns out higher than expected, that would be a dangerous signal; and an additional reason for the US central bank to consider a rate hike next week.

For the time being, the market still sees an opportunity of around 60 percent for an interest rate increase at the meeting on 16 September. For the time being, this should not spoil the fun on the stock market, but it is clear that we are looking at the biggest threat to the bull market.