Weekend stock tokens predict Monday open, but guessing up scores 55%
Bitquery’s pre-futures weekend test found no clear directional edge, while Nasdaq’s proposed weekday expansion remains conditional. Read the full story on CryptoSlateUnderstand the crypto stories that matter and what to watch next. Get The Catalyst in your inbox
Stock tokens kept trading through weekends, but their prices did not reliably guide the next stock-market open in a new study of 121 stocks.
Blockchain data provider Bitquery's Nov. 3 analysis found that Sunday token moves measured before equity-index futures reopened correctly called 54% of qualifying openings, so simply predicting that every stock would open higher scored 55%.
More hours can give investors another opportunity to transact, but they do not show that the resulting prices predict the next opening better.
Bitquery followed 17 weekends beginning July 10 through Oct. 30, with the final stock opening on Nov. 2. It recorded 791 stock-opening observations across those stocks, and its direction test kept the 533 openings that moved at least 0.5% from Friday's close.
Token moves pointed the right way on 286 of those observations, compared with 291 correct calls for always predicting a rise. Because more openings rose than fell, a 50% coin-toss benchmark alone would flatter the tokens' result.
The study also used balanced accuracy, which averages success on rises and falls. The tokens scored 53%, with a reported 95% interval of 44% to 62%.