US services price gauge hits a four-year high, clouding Bitcoin’s rate-relief outlook

The US services prices gauge reached a four-year high in September even as growth slowed, a combination that could keep leveraged Bitcoin positions exposed to restrictive financing conditions. The October 5 survey pairs softer activity with more widespread reports of rising input costs.

The Institute for Supply Management's services report, issued on its October 5 release date, put the prices index at 74.0, up from 72.6 in August. That was its highest reading since July 2022, when it reached 74.5.

The headline services PMI eased to 54.9 from 55.4, while business activity dropped to 56.5 from 61.7. Both remained above the 50 expansion threshold. Employment moved the other way, rising from 47.8 to 50.1 and returning to slight expansion after two months of contraction.

Growth therefore lost momentum while reported input-cost increases became more widespread. ISM's prices gauge is a diffusion index describing the direction and breadth of monthly input-cost changes across survey respondents. Its 74.0 reading provides no estimate of the size of price increases and cannot be read as a consumer-inflation rate.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on October 1 that inflation risks tilted upward. He also described September's quarter-point increase in the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00% and said future adjustments should depend on the data, outlook and balance of risks.