Standard Chartered says Ethena’s ENA could crush Bitcoin and Ethereum returns by 2028

Standard Chartered expects Ethena’s ENA token to rise about sevenfold by 2028, provided the protocol can rebuild its shrinking synthetic-dollar business.

The bank initiated coverage of ENA with a $2 year-end 2028 target, up from about $0.28 currently. It forecasts the token reaching $0.42 at the end of 2026 and $1.10 in 2027 before accelerating further the following year.

The projection would leave ENA outperforming Standard Chartered’s expected gains for both Bitcoin and Ethereum over the same period. But reaching it requires Ethena to reverse a contraction that has cut USDe supply by more than half from its peak and expand far beyond the scale it has previously achieved.

The bank’s thesis rests on Ethena finding new sources of yield as returns from its original crypto trading strategy decline, while generating enough revenue from a much larger USDe base to make ENA increasingly valuable to holders.

USDe became one of crypto’s fastest-growing stablecoins after launching in late 2023, exceeding $10 billion as traders piled into a structure that combined long spot crypto positions with short perpetual futures.

That approach allowed Ethena to capture funding payments while keeping its overall market exposure largely delta-neutral. At times, the strategy generated returns above 20%, helping attract deposits into USDe and its yield-bearing counterpart, sUSDe.

However, those conditions have since weakened amid the ensuing market contraction.

As the trade became more crowded and crypto funding rates compressed, USDe supply fell to about $4.9 billion. Standard Chartered estimates Ethena’s blended yield across its strategies is now about 5.2%.

The bank’s forecast assumes contraction can reverse dramatically. It expects USDe supply to reach $40 billion by 2028, meaning Ethena would first have to regain its previous $10 billion-plus peak and then roughly quadruple again.

Ethena has responded to lower crypto basis returns by broadening where it generates yield. Its strategies now include DeFi lending, institutional lending, liquid stablecoins and real-world assets, alongside newer basis trades tied to equities and commodities.

That diversification is central to Standard Chartered’s growth assumptions.

The bank expects tokenized assets, including stablecoins and other real-world assets, to reach about $4 trillion by the end of 2028 from roughly $350 billion currently. It projects real-world assets deployed on blockchains could rise from about $40 billion to $2 trillion over the same period.