For the first time, Bitcoin is at risk of ending the year in the red for two years in a row
For the first time ever, Bitcoin is at risk of declining for two consecutive years, and in recent weeks, it has also been in historically poor form. Read more.
Bitcoin (BTC) is at risk of ending 2026 with a record that won't please investors. After a loss in 2025, the cryptocurrency is also firmly in the red this year, which could result in two consecutive negative calendar years for the first time in history. At the same time, the short-term trend is at least as striking: Bitcoin is on track for its sixth consecutive week in the red.
Bitcoin ended 2025 with a loss of 6.34 percent. This year, the price is again down by about 16 percent. To still end 2026 on a positive note, Bitcoin must return to above around $87,500 before the end of December.
This is unusual based on historical data. Bitcoin has previously experienced several severe bear markets, but a negative calendar year has always been followed by a recovery so far. For example, after the 73.6% crash in 2018, Bitcoin rose by about 92% in 2019. After losing over 64 percent in 2022, 2023 even saw an increase of more than 155 percent.
However, the current losses are significantly smaller on an annual basis. Together, the decline in 2025 and 2026 amounts to approximately 21 percent. However, when measured from the record price of around $126,000 in October 2025, the picture looks a lot more painful.
The recent price trend also shows how persistent the weakness is. Bitcoin is on track for its sixth consecutive week of losses this week. Since the beginning of October, the price has fallen by about 20 percent.
Such a long red streak almost never occurs. The last time was earlier this year, when Bitcoin fell for six consecutive weeks between January and early March, losing around 30 percent.
The only longer streak in recent history occurred during the 2022 bear market. At that time, Bitcoin closed lower for eight consecutive weeks, and later that year, the issues surrounding Terra, Celsius, and ultimately FTX followed.
The current decline is linked, among other things, to outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, weakness in the stock market, and concerns about persistently high U.S. inflation and interest rates. The price fell today to its lowest point in three months, below $68,000.
A long losing streak does not, in itself, predict what will happen next. In early 2026, after six weeks in the red, a recovery finally followed, whereas the long streak in 2022 turned out to be part of a much larger bear market. However, the current situation does confirm how exceptionally weak Bitcoin's performance has been in recent weeks.