Fear is on the rise again in the markets: US and Israel plan new attack on Iran

The United States and Israel have concrete plans for a new attack on Iran shortly after the US elections. This is another escalation above the markets that have been suffering from an expensive oil price for months. Only President Donald Trump has already scrapped such plans many times at the last minute this year.

The two armies are working on a short but intensive operation after November 3, The New York Times reports this week based on insider officials. That day, the US holds the midterms, the midterm elections for Congress.

The target list presumably includes nuclear installations, energy supplies and supplies of missiles and drones. According to officials, refineries are being spared because Trump does not want to rush the price of gasoline any further.

Defense Minister Pete Hegseth discussed the attacks on Iran this week in Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Some US planners think that three days of bombing do enough economic damage to force Iran to give in.

Whether it will come to this is far from certain. At the beginning of October, both air forces were already in the highest state of readiness, when Trump postponed the attack at the last moment.

Netanyahu then urged new attacks ahead of the October 27 Israeli election. The White House denied that, but Trump did promise not to bomb Iran before the midterms.

It also remains volatile on the diplomatic front. On Tuesday, the Arab newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported that Qatar and Pakistan had submitted a compromise proposal.

Iran would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to do so. Brent oil, the international benchmark for oil prices, fell by about 2 percent.

Nevertheless, a diplomat involved said a few hours later that an agreement was not close at all. Trump himself didn't make it any clearer on Wednesday. When asked if there were still talks going on, he told NewsNation, “A bit, but we'll see what happens.”

When asked if he had finished negotiating, it sounded different. “No, I don't think we're negotiating with… we're going to have something anyway. It happens pretty quickly.”

The high oil price has already pushed up inflation quite a bit, but the pain is now also seeping through to the rest of the economy. Fearing a new escalation, Bitcoin (BTC), stocks and also gold have fallen in value.

Tehran promises to strike back harder in the event of another attack, now also towards data centers and submarine internet cables. Mahdi Mohammadi, advisor to the Iranian chief negotiator, calls a 72-hour American job a “fantasy.”

He recalled that Trump was still talking about a two-week war in February. The conflict has now lasted almost eight months.

Tehran analyst Peiman Salehi expects Iran to hit Saudi refineries, including Aramco's, in an attack on the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site.

“The war has made us realize that the best lever to put pressure on Trump is to drive up oil and energy prices because it hurts the American people,” he says.

First, it's Israel's turn. If Netanyahu loses on 27 October, he will become outgoing Prime Minister and starting a war will be difficult, according to experts. The American ballot box will follow twelve days after today.