Bitcoin’s $100,000 year-end hope divides analysts as inflation clouds outlook

Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 before year-end as institutional adoption and demand for hard assets overcome near-term economic uncertainty, according to crypto asset manager Bitwise, offering a more bullish outlook than traders who expect inflation and elevated interest rates to constrain gains.

The forecasts highlight a divide over timing. Analysts see longer-term support from institutional investment, regulatory progress and concerns about government debt, but disagree on whether those forces can drive a breakout before the end of 2026.

Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, expects bitcoin to emerge from the coming weeks’ uncertainty at a higher valuation.

“We believe bitcoin ends the year higher, potentially above $100,000,” Rasmussen told CoinDesk.

He identified three longer-term drivers: institutional buying through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate purchases; demand for hard assets amid inflation, rising debt and currency debasement; and clearer regulation that reduces the perceived risk of owning crypto.

“In our view, these tailwinds significantly outweigh the potential headwinds,” he said.

Rasmussen nevertheless expects volatility around a possible late-October Federal Reserve rate increase and November’s U.S. midterm elections. A breakout would be difficult in that environment, he said, although the uncertainty could create an opportunity for investors to build positions.

Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at LO:TECH, a London-based crypto trading and market data firm, is more cautious. His base case is an $85,000–$95,000 trading range into year-end.

“Macro has gone against Bitcoin all year, with the Fed hiking in September and a December hike priced at roughly 75%,” McCarthy said. “This will continue to weigh on bitcoin.”

The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September. Inflation figures released Oct. 14 complicated the outlook: consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month, while core prices increased 0.3%. Gasoline accounted for more than half of the headline increase.

McCarthy said a return above $100,000 would require expectations for a December hike to give way to a pause, supported by easing oil prices and inflation.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, sees a similar tension between persistent inflation and weakening employment. Cooling prices would give the Fed more room to respond to labor-market weakness; further inflation pressure could keep policy restrictive and weigh on bitcoin.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $81,500 at publication time.

Luca Invernizzi, senior derivatives trader at Laser Digital, Nomura’s crypto subsidiary, expects bitcoin to remain largely a macro trade into year-end, taking its direction from longer-dated Treasury yields.