Bitcoin rebounds after Democratic sweep despite three days of ETF outflows

Bitcoin rebounded above $78,000 on Wednesday after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, despite three consecutive trading sessions of US spot ETF withdrawals.

The Democratic victories in Tuesday's midterm elections dealt President Donald Trump a political setback. In a pre-election Bloomberg survey, respondents had forecast lower year-end Bitcoin prices under that outcome than under Republican or divided control.

The survey's median year-end forecast was $76,450 under a Democratic sweep, compared with $84,100 under divided congressional control and $90,800 if Republicans retained both chambers.

Ryan Kirkley, co-founder and CEO of blockchain infrastructure company Global Settlement Network, argued ahead of the election that Bitcoin could recover toward $85,000-$90,000 regardless of the outcome. His forecast depended on ETF flows stabilizing, liquidity improving and confidence returning to the broader economy.

“My view is that investors are probably giving Washington too much credit for Bitcoin's direction,” Kirkley said.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $76,000 as election results emerged before recovering above $78,000 on Wednesday.

The election followed a sharp deterioration in cryptocurrency social sentiment.

According to blockchain analysis firm Santiment, Bitcoin's bullish-to-bearish social commentary ratio fell from about 1.8 on Oct. 20 to 0.51 as Democrats moved toward control of Congress.

The decline accelerated after Binance suffered a roughly $6 billion security breach in late October, when the ratio briefly collapsed to 0.37 before recovering for several days.

Santiment attributed the renewed pessimism to perceptions that Republicans are more supportive of cryptocurrencies, with the prospect of Democratic control of Congress adding to concerns about the industry's political future.

However, the analytics firm suggested that the extreme pessimism could create conditions for a contrarian recovery, particularly if Bitcoin rebounds after traders have positioned themselves for further losses.

Analysts at Bitunix warned that Democratic control could reshape Washington's approach to cryptocurrency regulation, potentially shifting congressional priorities from advancing industry legislation toward investigations of conflicts of interest, exchange oversight and broader financial risks.

The industry's flagship market-structure legislation, the CLARITY Act, had already encountered resistance before the election.

On Sept. 15, the Senate rejected a procedural motion to advance the legislation by 49 votes to 50, falling short of the 60 votes required.

The bill seeks to establish clearer boundaries between Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight, an effort that crypto companies have long argued would reduce legal uncertainty.