Bitcoin holds $73,000 as odds of a December 50 bps rate hike jump

The odds of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve hike in December rose from 0% to 13.6% on Nov. 10 after October CPI beat forecasts, as Bitcoin fell to an intraday low below $73,000.

Meanwhile, the odds of a 25-basis-point hike climbed from 84% to 86.4%, according to a Nov. 10 CME FedWatch snapshot reported by Barron's.

Headline CPI rose 0.4% versus a 0.3% forecast, and core rose 0.3% versus 0.2%, meeting the condition Governor Christopher Waller set for considering a 50 bps move.

The market is pricing more tightening, with 25 bps the dominant outcome. The no-hike probability dropped from 16% to 0%, so the 25 bps odds rose alongside the 50 bps odds.

Weighting the three outcomes, the expected December hike moved from 21.0 bps to 28.4 bps, up 7.4 bps. A 50/50 split between the two sizes would imply 37.5 bps, so the market sits closer to its old expectation than to a 50 bps base case.

The odds ratio favoring 50 over 25 would have to rise more than sixfold before 50 bps became the likelier size.

October's report was hotter than forecast and cooler than September on the headline, which slowed from 0.6% to 0.4%. Core stayed at 0.3% for a third month, and transportation services rose 0.8%.

At a constant 0.3% a month, core inflation compounds to about 3.7% annualized, a run-rate calculation that stands apart from an official annual figure. The BLS omitted an annual October comparison, since the 2025 government shutdown interrupted the underlying data collection.

Waller's threshold opens consideration of a 50 bps hike, and committee backing is a separate matter. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 by a 10-2 vote, and both dissenters wanted 25 bps.

Three developments could strengthen the case for 50 bps at the FOMC’s December meeting and shape Bitcoin's outlook.