Bitcoin beats the S&P 500 on most trading days but still loses the month
Bitcoin's relative win rate against the S&P 500 recovered above 50% in recent sessions, up from about one session in five in June, its weakest stretch in roughly six years, according to Glassnode. Coinbase Institutional's Oct. 23 report found BlackRock's IBIT drawing about $6 billion since Aug. 1 against roughly $500 million across all other… Read the full story on CryptoSlateUnderstand the crypto stories that matter and what to watch next. Get The Catalyst in your inbox
Bitcoin's relative win rate against the S&P 500 recovered above 50% in recent sessions, up from about one session in five in June, its weakest stretch in roughly six years, according to Glassnode.
Coinbase Institutional's Oct. 23 report found BlackRock's IBIT drawing about $6 billion since Aug. 1 against roughly $500 million across all other US spot Bitcoin ETFs, a 92% share of net inflows. Farside Investors’ data extended through Oct. 26 puts the share at 96.3%.
A date-matched calculation for October through Oct. 26 shows Bitcoin beating the S&P 500 on 10 of 18 sessions (55.6%). Bitcoin fell 4.25% over the same stretch, and the S&P rose 0.33%, a 4.58% gap in stocks' favor.
In its 10 winning sessions, Bitcoin's average edge was about 0.71%, and in its eight losing sessions, its average shortfall was 1.44%, roughly twice as large.
In the first half of 2026, corporate treasuries bought about $14.5 billion of Bitcoin while US spot ETFs saw almost $5 billion of net outflows. Since August, ETFs have drawn roughly $6.4 billion against about $1.5 billion from treasuries.
Farside Investors’ fund-level data shows that from Aug. 3 through Oct. 26, IBIT took in a net $5.7 billion and every other fund combined $221 million.
October's share is undefined as a concentration measure, since IBIT added $866 million while rival funds lost over $1 billion and the whole category sits at about $203 million of net outflows.
The Farside figure through Oct. 21 was about 90.5%, so the rise toward 96.3% reflects redemptions at other funds as much as buying at IBIT.
Across October's 18 sessions, IBIT averaged $48.1 million of daily net inflows and competing funds lost $59.4 million a day, for a combined daily outflow of $11.3 million.
If rival redemptions held that pace, IBIT's daily inflows would need to rise about 24%, to $59.4 million, to bring the category to zero.
Concentration describes the observable ETF channel, and IBIT serves many investors, advisers and market makers.
ETF creations and redemptions pass through hedging, inventory and settlement before reaching the spot market, so the share measures ETF flows and leaves single buyers and total Bitcoin purchases outside its scope.