A $3.2 million 'bitcoin butterfly' option trade bets on $95,000 by the end of October

Bitcoin’s rally has traders chasing upside exposure, with the most notable options trade of the past 24 hours pointing to expectations for a move toward $95,000 by the end of October.

The trade was a “long call butterfly,” an options strategy that benefits most when the underlying asset settles near a specified middle strike price at expiry. The trade involved buying the Oct. 30 expiry calls at $90,000 and $100,000 while simultaneously selling twice as many $95,000 calls.

The trade was executed via liquidity network Paradigm in five blocks, each consisting of 1,000 long $90,000 calls, 2,000 short $95,000 calls and 1,000 long $100,000 calls, according to data source Laevitas. The combined position involved a net initial payment of $3.17 million.

The strategy makes the most money if bitcoin is around $95,000 at expiry and has positive gross payoff between $90,000 and $100,000. Outside that range, the payoff is zero and the trader stands to lose the $3.17 million paid to establish the position.

In other words, the trader appears to be positioning for bitcoin to rise from roughly $85,000 to $95,000 over the next four weeks. That view broadly aligns with bitcoin’s daily chart, which shows little obvious resistance between $85,000 and $98,000.

There are no price levels in that zone where bitcoin previously stalled or consolidated, so, all else being equal, the current momentum could push it toward $98,000 in the near-term (check Today’s Signal).

The butterfly was not the only sign of growing bullish positioning. Traders also increased their demand for upside exposure through call options, pushing short-term risk reversals higher.

“Risk reversals have also been volatile, with front-end RRs flipping aggressively in favour of calls during the move up to $85K, before retracing somewhat this morning,” Laser Digital said in a note shared with CoinDesk.

The options market is also showing a broader preference for volatility across major tokens. On Monday, Coinbase Markets said options were pricing one-standard-deviation swings of 8.9% for XRP, 8.0% for SOL, 6.9% for ether and 5.0% for bitcoin through Sept. 27.

The figures measure expected price swings rather than directional bets, with risk of volatility highest in XRP. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."