By coinnews 
00:00 Speaker A
It’s time now for today’s strategy session. US stocks opening in the green this morning after snapping three days of losses. But what is the near-term trade for investors? As stocks trade within a narrow range. Joining us now, Kenny Polcari, SlateStone Wealth chief market strategist and host of The Trader Talk podcast on Yahoo Finance and friend of the show. Kenny, thank you for being here with us as always. So, obviously, there’s a lot of enthusiasm this morning both ahead of potential trade talks between the US and the UK, but also on these potential changes to chip curbs. What do investors do with the tech trade right now? Continue to buy it? Any tech names?
00:47 Kenny Polcari
Thank you for having me. Buy it. All of them? Well, you know, you gotta take a look at the at the at the sector. But certainly any of the names that are in tech, and most of them are in tech, but if you’re talking about Nvidia, Palantir, AMD, any of these names that sit kind of at the nexus of what’s going on in tech, that have been are that have been really dislocated over the past month because of we they’d gotten beaten up, are names that you if this goes through, this sanction really goes through the way they’re talking about it, then, yeah, I think they’re I think they’re all buys, but certainly, you know, the favorite names, right? Palantir, for sure. Nvidia, for sure. Uh, AMD.
01:46 Speaker A
What do you think the break even point for some traders out there is right now? Because that seems to be where a lot of the thinking comes back into play off of these rallies that you’re selling the rally just to break even instead of buying further in.
02:00 Kenny Polcari
Well, okay, because because you’re talking about a trader. So a trader is someone who’s in and out, he’s in and out. So if they bought it down, you know, 300 points, then they’re going to sell it up 250 or 300 points. So they’re going to kind of get in the way. But if you’re a long-term investor and you bought it lower, you’re not looking to flip it out, you’re looking to hold it. So the trader types are always the one that, you know, kind of create all the all the noise around it because they’re in and out, they’re in and out. So yeah, if they if they bought it lower, they’re absolutely going to be selling it as we as we test the trend line because we’re just about to kiss the trend line here on the S&P. And I think that’s going to actually keep a lid on it. I don’t I think we’re gonna have a tough time getting through the trend line until we get more clarity, until we get more deals.
03:00 Speaker A
Well, we’re about to get a deal announcement at 10:00 a.m. today. Right. But that deal, it took a long time to get there.
03:09 Kenny Polcari
Right. And and we we don’t know yet what the particulars and what we do know so far is that um, it’s on cars and steel, I think, is what I read this morning unless it’s changed again. Um, and potentially some of the digital stuff, potentially some of the tech stuff. So let’s wait and see what that deal looks like. Let’s wait and see if that ends up becoming like a blueprint for other trade agreements, not necessarily with cars and steel, but just kind of the way they the way they brought it together, right?
03:42 Speaker A
It sounds like it doesn’t make you much more optimistic in the short term.
03:49 Kenny Polcari
No, but it makes me optimistic, but it doesn’t make me a raging bull where I’m saying go on buy everything because I think what’s going to happen is the market’s had this nice rally right up to the trend line. I think it’s gonna I think it’s gonna struggle at the trend line for a little bit, which means no reason to be anxious and run right out there and buy everything. Relax. Let’s just see how it goes. If you’re a long-term investor, you’ve enjoyed this move down, you took advantage of the move lower, let it just run for you. On days like today with the market’s up like this as a long-term wealth advisor, I’m not buying, I’m not chasing, because we we own stock, we bought stock lower, so we’re gonna sit and let it happen.
04:29 Speaker A
What’s more important for us to see a trade deal come forward from a huge trading partner, a large country by GDP or uh, some of these smaller ones, perhaps in a packaged and you know, fashion?
04:51 Kenny Polcari
So, listen, it’s a great question. You always want to see a deal come together from a large trading partner, for sure, because it’s a large trading partner. But if you can bring four or five smaller countries to the table with deals, you know, like I said I said last week, we need a couple of base hits. You don’t necessarily even need a home run, you need a base hit or two to just get it going, because once it gets going, then I think the others really fall in line because they’re going to see all the excitement, they’re going to see these other countries making these deals, and they’re going to want to jump on the bandwagon, they don’t want to be left behind. Other than China is going to be a little bit of an issue, but that’s because there’s so much we and we did it to ourselves, all this reliance on China over the years, right? Uh, we did it to ourselves. So that one might take a little bit longer, but look, I think China is going to be anxious to come to the table.
05:49 Speaker A
Where does the Fed stand in all of this in your view?
05:53 Kenny Polcari
So, uh, the Fed didn’t do anything that I didn’t expect, right? I’m in the camp that we’re getting no rate cuts this year. Let’s just put that out on the table, right? Unless the the hard economic data really falls off the edge, I’m in the camp that the Fed stays put. I think he made that very clear yesterday while he walked the line. He wasn’t more hawkish or dovish, he walked the line. But I think the Fed stays put. And and I don’t think there’s any reason at all. The look, they keep saying rates are restrictive. The hard data continues to be robust. So what’s restrictive about these rates, right? And so I don’t see it. And by the way, it’s well within the normal trading range, right? Between four and six percent is very normal. So uh, this idea, I think Goldman’s got three rate cuts by the end of the year, which takes us into the low threes or mid threes, uh uh which I don’t think we need at the moment. So I’m in the camp that I think J. Powell does exactly what he says he’s going to sit tight.