00:00 Speaker A
We are nearing President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office. And while his return is clearly transformed America’s political landscape, a wide range of big ticket items are still looming. For more on the start of Trump’s second term as president and what’s to come, it’s welcoming Matthew Axe, Evercore ISI, a senior strategist based there in DC. He’s formerly worked in government as well. So we really appreciate your perspective here, Matt. Um, so before all these other big ticket items, it seems like we should talk about tariffs and just linger on this one for a moment, because it is the thing that he is come out with with a bang and then some. What do market participants now most closely need to watch from a policy perspective around tariffs in the coming weeks and months?
01:31 Matthew Axe
It’s great to be with you. Well, look, I think, um, tariffs clearly, uh, have, uh, peaked, uh, and they, the administration is looking for a way to come down off of those highs you saw after the, uh, so-called liberation day. I think the question is just how quickly they can, um, effectuate that without feeling like they’ve lost face. We know that the administration is working on memorandums of understanding, or Secretary Benson called them agreements of understanding, uh, with a set of countries. Uh, but I think market participants really need to watch how substantive are those agreements. Uh, just how much breathing room do they buy for negotiations, uh, to unfold. Uh, and if they don’t buy enough time, uh, or create enough certainty, then unfortunately, I think this environment we’ve been operating in a high uncertainty is likely to continue.
02:56 Speaker A
So, Matt, uh, tariffs front and center for investors, so are taxes. I’m curious, Matt, those Trump tax cuts, in your opinion, Matt, are they getting extended? And if so, when you’re talking your clients, what do you think the timeline is?
03:20 Matthew Axe
Yeah, well, look, I think on the timeline, we’re going to get a very, uh, important update here from Secretary Besant in a few, uh, days, potentially a few weeks around when he expects to hit the debt limit. We know that the debt limit is riding along with the tax cut extensions. And I think that’ll really frame up the legislative calendar here, uh, looking ahead into May and into the summer. Uh, I expect that they’re going to try to pass Trump’s, um, you know, so-called one big beautiful bill, uh, by around that time when they would hit the debt limit and just try to deal with everything, uh, at once, extend the tax cuts, provide additional tax cuts, and also deal with the debt limit, uh, in kind of one fell swoop.