By coinnews 
00:00 Josh Lipton
The Dow, S&P 500 rise for a fifth straight day in the lead up to big tech earnings this week. And our finances, Jared Blickry, joins us now with the trading day takeaways. Jared.
00:11 Jared Blikre
Thank you, Josh. We got to start with the major indices, stocks. And that’s the major indices, they have reached the Rubicon. That is a decision point. Things could turn up in favor of the bulls. And they’ve been going up, to be fair, as you said, for five days, or they could turn back down. So, let me show you what I’m looking at in the S&P 500 and it looks very similar in the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow. So I’ll just do the S&P 500. This is a two-month chart, and what I want to show you is you can see we kind of fell off the cliff right in here. I’m going to draw a horizontal line. This is the cliff line. And you can see after we dropped here, we had that magnificent day. The Nasdaq was up 10% or 12%, S&P 500 was up 10% that day, but then it stopped, and then it kind of fell off a bit. And then it has retested. So, my point is, there’s a lot of price memory in here, a lot of investors who were buying the dip in here from the prior highs from earlier in the year, those investors might want to get out of break even. And so, that kind of dynamic in the market creates a situation where if we don’t have another bullish catalyst, a lot of times the market will just roll back over. So the market really needs to climb above this level right here, which is about 5700. And then to the downside, I’d really like to see 5500 hold. I’m not saying the floor falls out again if we go below it, but 5500 is a really good level to watch here. And um, I’ll tell you another thing, I said the Nasdaq was pretty similar. I’ll just put that up here, and indeed it is a very similar picture, Josh. And let me just add this. Last week we had a lot of bullish developments. We’re talking with Brian Dietrich, you were about those, uh, the breadth thrust that we got this week, breadth thrust. Investors Business Daily has their own similar indicator called the follow-through, follow-through day. Uh, that signal that has to do with the major indices. So, the elements are here for a nice rally continuation, but we’ve got some headwinds.
03:22 Josh Lipton
How do earnings play into this picture?
03:27 Jared Blikre
Good question. That brings us to point number two. What about earnings? What about that E? Um, let me show you because earnings estimates for 2025, this is a full year. Those have been coming down. And I have a chart from Bank of America. So, with the white line here is 2025. Uh, we actually start projecting what’s going to happen with those earnings way back in December 2023. So, that’s why it starts all the way back here, and you can see it was rising, and now it is kind of falling a bit. The blue and green lines are historical averages. The green line is, uh, basically everything, uh, every year going back to the beginning of the century. And then the blue line, it takes out a number of the crises. It takes out COVID, it takes out the great financial crisis, it takes out Y2K, which was a.com bust. Uh, so we are right at the decision point right here for earnings. We could hold on to some of these earnings estimates. However, Bank of America thinks that we track this, uh, this historical average down here, uh, that includes some of these, uh, these COVID disasters, the global financial crisis, etc. So, Bank of America is saying that we’re probably going to follow this more negative track. We’ll have to see how it turns out. Oh, I did want to add another thing. I did get to talk to Emily Roland. She’s, uh, chief co-investor, she’s a co-in co-chief investment officer over at Manulife John Hancock Bank. And we’re talking about earnings, and specifically earnings, the E in earnings in that PE ratio, how it’s been coming down. Here’s what she had to say.
05:31 Emily Roland
The challenge is nobody really knows right now what the E is. So stocks have gotten cheaper. They the E, sorry, on the PE ratio. What is that? There’s a lot of uncertainty around what is the earnings estimate right now. So yes, prices have come down, but stocks may not be as cheap as they look because that E, the earnings probably has to adjust lower.
06:16 Jared Blikre
So the big question is, do earnings adjust lower down here, or do we ride this historical track absent these crises?
06:30 Josh Lipton
Finally, Bitcoin. If you look at the charts, what do you think? Is the worst over? What do you say?
06:39 Jared Blikre
Yes. I’ll tell you what, Bitcoin is looking a lot like US stocks, not exactly, but I want to show you the chart, and then you’ll kind of see what I mean. So that was the Nasdaq, that’s what we left off on. I’m going to show you Bitcoin here. I’ll put some candlesticks, and I’ll show you since the beginning of the year, year to date. Uh, there we go. Now, Bitcoin fell off a cliff in February, and so not exactly like equities, but you can see what happened. It rallied right up to the prior breakdown point, and then it sold off, and now it’s reached it again, and here we have another decision point. So my point is, uh, Bitcoin is kind of mimicking what’s going on in US stocks. It’s echoing it, not perfect, but another decision to be made. And you might think, well, Jared, didn’t you say it was going down to 70, 72,000. It hit 74,000, and that might have been the low. So, all in all, we have a number of markets that are looking very similar and a decision needs to be made, but we need that catalyst. Is it going to go up or down?
08:01 Josh Lipton
All right. Thank you, Jared. Appreciate, buddy.