By coinnews 
00:00 Speaker A
You have a unique line of sight here, Gene, because I’d imagine you’re talking to a lot of different folks from a lot of different sectors, Gene, you know, you’re you’re talking to importers and and shippers and retailers and manufacturers. What have been the big takeaways from those conversations, Gene? What what are they saying about all this?
00:33 Gene
Well, good afternoon, Josh. Good to be back. And what most importers of the larger segment have been telling me since the campaign trail last summer is they’re not going to dismiss anything that this administration would have to say. So they started inching up and bringing in cargo a little bit earlier than normal or advancing inventories. In the plan that if tariffs were implemented, they could average their cost down. Now, we’ve got about 125,000 companies that import through the port of Los Angeles on an annual basis, and no one has more than a 5% share. So while some of the big box retailers bringing in finished goods and possibly some of the manufacturing inputs coming in could be advanced. It’s the small to middle-sized retailer that may not have had the capability of doing that, whether it be warehousing space, fronting the money, or being able to position themselves in the market. Those are the folks that we’re watching very closely right now.
02:18 Speaker B
Gene, Saul here. I’m just curious how how how did Q1 sort of turn out at the port? I can, you know, there’s this rush, you know, followed by this, oh, there’s going to be a volume cliff. What was the reality and what do you see for the next couple of months?
02:51 Gene
Oh, good to see you again. What we saw was about seven straight months in excess of 900,000 container units coming into the port of Los Angeles. And realistically, that’s a peak season month every month during this time of advanced inventories. The first quarter will be one of our best on record. And what I’ve said is that probably second half of this year, we’ll see about a 10% decline in cargo volume because you’ve brought in just about all the product you can at this juncture and still keep your supply chain fluid. We’ve got a little bit of experience although on a smaller level back in 2018 when section 232 and 301 tariffs went into place. And at the end of 2019, that fourth quarter, saw our business drop by 16%. So there will be peaks and valleys through this continued uncertainty of start and stop points.