By coinnews 
00:00 Speaker A
US equities are underperforming so far this year, on track for their worst quarter since 2022. Three catalysts to watch for a potential rebound: policy clarity, earnings, and flows and international stocks. Let’s kick it off with policy uncertainty, particularly around President Trump’s tariff rollout plan. Investors hoping for some clarity in early April, when the fuller scope of the levies are set to be unveiled. One big question still, is this an escalate to de-escalate strategy or will tariff policy be sticky? The answer could define where the market heads from here. Now, another area to watch: earnings. Analysts and companies have reduced earnings expectations for the first quarter, according to FactSet, amid concern about a slowdown in consumer spending. The S&P 500 is expected to report year-over-year earnings growth of 7.3%, compared to 11.7% that was estimated back in December. That downward revision being driven in part by the tariff uncertainty. But still, the S&P is on track for its seventh quarter, consecutive quarter, of annual earnings growth. And within earnings, investors will be keenly watching tech as the Mag 7 is down 17% year-to-date. The final thing to watch in April is where Wall Street is shifting allocation, as US stocks are on track for their worst quarter compared to the rest of the world since the 1980s. Investors are looking at ways to hedge against that uncertainty. HSBC and Citi both downgraded their rating of US stocks to neutral from overweight this quarter, while Barclays, Goldman, RBC and Yardney Research all reducing their S&P targets this year. Bank of America’s March Global Fund Manager Survey found the biggest drop in US equity allocation ever, and the biggest jump into cash since March of 2020. That survey also found allocation to Eurozone stocks hit the highest level since July of 2021. So, will the reallocation of stocks outside of the US continue amid policy uncertainty? Well, some of our sources tell us the Europe trade has already run its course, with indices like the DAX up 11% year-to-date, compared with the S&P down about 5% in the same time frame. Fund flows could be a key indicator of global interest in holding onto US stocks amid the current drawdown. And those are the three catalysts we’re watching, Julie.
03:36 Speaker B
Maddie, thanks so much. Appreciate it.