00:00 Speaker A
So many market participants we’ve spoken with, Henrietta, still say they see tariffs and President Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiating tool.
00:17 Speaker A
Um, do you still think that, or maybe you never did. Do you think that’s the case? Do you think that’s the wrong way to frame this?
00:29 Henrietta Treyz
There are 20% tariffs on $489 billion worth of goods coming in from Cana from China on top of the 25% tariffs that he imposed seven years ago. No, this is not a negotiation. And let’s maybe take it a little bit further. If you do enter into negotiations with other nations, those negotiations take years. You know, we we reached a phase one trade deal with China in 2020 and there is still no adherence. Um, you need, after the tariffs go into effect, you know, you don’t just need the country, say the EU, to come into the room with you and begin negotiations. You need to reach the end of the negotiation and then have them prove that they’ve delivered on whatever it is that you’ve asked them to do. That takes a tremendous amount of time. I think the EU auto tariffs, for example, are going to be in effect for a minimum of six months. 12 months is entirely possible. And should we run into different issues on the digital services tax or agriculture trade, it’ll just continue to expand.
01:59 Speaker A
You know, Henri, I have a political question for you as well, which is that, you know, you think about Trump’s GOP, Henrietta. It’s a different kind of GOP, it’s a different kind of coalition. He’s brought in more blue collar Americans and working class Americans. Except that you see these tariffs and they raise prices for these folks. How loyal do you think they remain to Trump, and for how long?
02:33 Henrietta Treyz
You know, there’s some really interesting polling data about all of the president’s agenda. You know, the immigration issues, deportations, even the tax bill and tariffs, and tariffs consistently rank as the lowest area of support amongst his voters. So while they are behind him, and 83% of the population thinks that China is a major threat to the United States, we are not unclear about the fact that tariffs are taxes. The American public knows that. So when President Trump comes out and says, this is liberation day and, you know, tariffs are a tax cut, you can see from the consumer data that is coming out right now that the American public is not buying what he’s selling on this specific topic. Um, so I do think it’s an interesting area of disconnect. And on Tuesday, the Democratic conference in the United States Senate is actually going to force a vote. They just announced this about an hour ago. They’re going to force a vote on the IPA tariffs against Canada and get all the Republican senators on the record either supporting or opposing the IPA tariffs that Trump has put on at 25% rates against Canada, and that’s going to be fascinating. Um, that’ll that’ll happen on Tuesday.