Fed concerned about tariff-driven inflation risks: FOMC minutes


00:00 Josh

The latest minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting are out. Let’s get to Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger for more, Jen.

00:09 Jennifer Schonberger

Hey Josh, almost all members of the Federal Reserve saw a risk that higher inflation from tariffs could prove longer lasting. As we really saw that internal debate on this subject matter between Fed officials borne out in these Fed minutes from their last policy meeting. Of course, these Fed minutes released with a three-week lag. Now, some thought tariffs on intermediate goods, so basically parts used to make products like steel or aluminum could contribute to a more persistent increase in inflation. A few thought supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs could lead to longer lasting inflation, akin to kind of what we saw during the pandemic. But several said that a number of factors could offset the uptick and persistence in inflation, including reductions in tariff increases through trade negotiations, consumers’ low appetite for price increases, the potential for a weakening economy, or if firms move to increase market share rather than raise prices. Now, many said surveys or their business contacts indicated that companies were planning to either partially or fully pass on increases in costs from tariffs to consumers. Several noted that companies not directly subject to tariffs might also take the opportunity to increase their prices if other companies were raising prices. Meanwhile, Fed officials thought that the outlook for the job market could weaken in the coming months. They see considerable uncertainty about the outlook for the job market, hinging on those trade negotiations and government policies as a whole. And for that reason, Fed officials opted to say that we would prefer to wait for greater clarity on the impact of the administration’s policies before charting a course forward on interest rates.


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