By coinnews 
00:00 Speaker A
It’s time now for today’s strategy session. Strategists of Barclays saying the markets next move will be higher calling it the path of least resistance as institutional investors sat out the latest rally. So, could strong earnings results spark continued gains? Joining us now to discuss Michael Rankin his NYSE senior market strategist. Michael, great to speak with you. I know you were mentioning when you first got to set that, at least we’ve gotten the worst behind us. It seems like there’s a little bit more momentum to the upside here, but to what extent can we continue to expect the market to rally as we head out of earning season and there maybe isn’t that much of a catalyst for growth?
00:44 Michael Rankin
Yeah, I think hyper waffling might be actually some foreshadowing for what we might see, you know, kind of in the next couple months. Like, I think, you know, we’ve had this pretty strong upside, you know, kind of momentum move off of the lows, you know, really strong kind of breath as we saw that. And you know, as we talked last time, we were looking for kind of a test of that 200 day moving average the last time I was here, you know, we did kind of overshoot that to the upside and then, you know, kind of last week after seeing a 20% rally, we came and kind of pulled back into kind of retest that level. You know, I think that is a pretty good support level kind of beneath here, you know, 5775. And then you’re looking at kind of a gap from the trying to taunt kind of just, you know, kind of just under 5700. So I think, you know, technically we’re in for a period of a little bit of consolidation. We have some pretty big potential catalyst as we move through the summer, you know, to work through in terms of kind of the tax bill, you know, the 90 day reprieve rolling off, right? So, we’ll have to kind of see how some of that plays out.
02:11 Speaker A
Sure. You know, as we’re continuing to hear from companies, we’re talking about where they needed to front run any potential tariff impact here and also what it’s spelling out about their consumer and how they’re continuing to navigate this environment. What what is the health of the economy as assessed through some of the earnings that we’ve heard thus far in aggregate over the course of the season?
02:48 Michael Rankin
Yeah, so I mean, you know, I think the last time we I was here as well, we talked about this idea of BT and AT, before tariffs after tariffs, right? And I think that Q1 earning season really kind of solidifies the idea that the economy and kind of corporate America was performing very well ahead of those tariff announcements during the first quarter. Now, we’re going to need to see kind of how things progress. Unfortunately, I think where there’s kind of a third time period that we’re going to have to work through that’s kind of purgatory as we’re calling it, right? Where, you know, we’re having to kind of work through the pull forward of some of that demand and start to see what the impact on pricing is kind of from tariffs and how companies are going to react. So, I mean, they’ve they’ve kind of told you that they’re starting to mitigate kind of finding ways to mitigate some of those cost pressures. I think corporate America has learned from, you know, kind of past experience coming out of COVID. They’ve really shown that they’re very able to kind of quickly and dynamically shift kind of supply chains and react to these difficult environments.
04:35 Speaker A
Okay, so that’s the company lens. What about for the Fed and the lens that they’re assessing it through because we’re going to get the meeting minutes today. What is the tone that you expect them to have to have acknowledged at least at their most recent meeting?
04:58 Michael Rankin
Yeah, so, I mean, the issue for the Fed is that, you know, kind of the potential impact of tariffs kind of puts their dual mandate kind of at tension with itself, right? And they’re going to be stuck in this period of time where they need to assess what the impact on prices will be, whether that’s kind of a one-time impact. It’s going to take a little bit of time for them to do that. They’ve pretty consistently told you that they’re in a wait and see mode at this point and I don’t think that’s going to shift unless we see a very, very significant kind of slowdown on the jobs side of the dual mandate, right? But until we were to really see that, which, you know, we haven’t seen any signs of if you look at the claims data, the non-farm payrolls data, right, nothing’s really suggested that has shifted and until, until we see that shift, I think they’re just going to continue to be in this wait and see stance.
06:21 Speaker A
And we talk about earnings, we talk about the Fed, and the reconciliation bill or the Big Beautiful Bill, excuse me, but messing up my administrations, but I’m curious about whether or not it really all comes down to tariff policy at the end of the day. We saw the huge move to the upside off of the president’s announcement that the EU tariffs were not actually going to be as severe as initially teased out. Is that going to continue to be the driver of significant gains in the near term?
07:04 Michael Rankin
I mean, I think, you know, at this point, markets seem to be a little bit desensitized to some of those trade headlines, right? I mean, on Friday, last Friday when we did get the initial EU headlines, markets sold off a little bit, but I mean, it was a pretty muted response in general. I think there was, you know, the idea that we weren’t going to actually institute 50% tariffs on the EU. So I think we’re getting a little bit desensitized to some of those headlines. You know, the issue would be is if we really start to see those things kind of ramp back up, but it seems that the administration is sort of looking for kind of that off ramp and it really seems that it’s very transactional at this point where, you know, where the administration is looking to do business around the globe and it’s become kind of this very transactional in nature.
08:26 Speaker A
Michael, good to see you this morning.
08:29 Michael Rankin
Thanks for having me.
08:30 Speaker A
How’s the tone at the NYSE? Everybody okay down there after Yeah, I was going to say, you know, I was a little relieved that we’re kind of open around unchanged. Definitely some downtrodden downtrodden folks.
08:55 Speaker B
Well, you got to a bright spirited place over here for the morning at least, Michael. Good to see you.
09:13 Michael Rankin
Thanks for having me.