0:05 spk_0

Welcome to Trader Talk where we dish out the latest Wall Street buzz to keep your portfolio sizzling. I’m Kenny Polcari coming to you live from the iconic New York Stock Exchange, a place that had been my home for decades and still fuels the pulse of capitalism, entrepreneurship, and freedom. Now let’s jump into my big take for the week. Turn on the TV, open the.YouTube, scroll your feed, and there are all the financial gurus shouting predictions with god-like confidence. Stocks to buy now, crash warnings, millionaire blueprints. They look slick, they talk fast, they package themselves as shortcut to riches. But here’s the truth. No one likes to say it out loud. Most of these gurus aren’t in the markets. They’re in marketing.The more certain someone sounds about the future of the market, the less you should trust them because real investors, those who’ve spent decades in the trenches, don’t speak in absolutes. They speak in probabilities. They know no one can predict the market consistently and they certainly don’t promise you guaranteed returns in exchange for a subscription fee.Why does this work? Because uncertainty is uncomfortable. So when someone steps up and says, I’ve cracked the code, people listen. Even when it’s snake oil wrapped in financial jargon, even when they’re selling fear, or worse, hope.But real investing is messy. It’s slow. It’s full of risk and mistakes and adjustments. There’s no cheating code, just hard earned discipline. Bottom line, if someone’s selling you an illusion of certainty, they’re not a guru, they’re a sales person. You don’t need louder voices. You need clearer thinking. Trust the process, not the pitch.OK, joining us today is my friend Chris Versace, chief investment officer at Tomatica Research, where he leads the development of thematic investing that aligned portfolios with powerful long-term trends like digital transformation, aging demographics, and the rise of the connected consumer. Chris is also the co-author of Cocktail Investing.And a veteran equity analyst with a deep background in technology, consumer, and industrial sectors. He spent years helping investors understand how big picture shifts translate into actionable stock ideas. Please join me in welcoming Chris Versace. Chris, it is a pleasure to have you here at the New York Stock Exchange, a place for me that feels like home.

2:26 spk_1

I’mI’m so happy to be here, Kenny. You are right. We have known each other for some time. I just hope that I live up to that very niceintroduction.

2:34 spk_0

Absolutely live up. But let’s start by talking about thematic investing and what thematic research is. So, so educate the crowd just a little bit about, about what itis.

2:43 spk_1

So I got started a long time ago. I mean, I, I almost hate to say how long ago at this point.Um, just as a regular sell side equity analyst, and you know, I wound up covering a certain sector, right, where you’re responsible for understanding the puts the takes, the industry does everything about that sector that sector, only that sector, and at times you’re in favor, you’re out of favor, but as I was doing this, I kind of sat back and said, you know, there are things happening here.That if I don’t have a vertical approach, if I took a horizontal approach, boy, can I connect the dots and get something pretty interesting so this started to give rise to this thematic framework where we look for the shifting landscapes of economics, demographics, psychographics, technology, regulatory mandates when they happen, and what we’re trying to identify structural change and the.Companies that are poised to benefit from them. Not all companies are. Some companies will they get left behind? You bet they will, but that’s really to us what thematic investing is about. It’s about identifying structural change.

3:43 spk_0

OK, but so does it really work in today’s environment, today’s technology environment? Like give me an example. Talk to me about how you would maybe create a thematic portfolio.

3:53 spk_1

Uh, well, let’s see. We haven’t created one in a little bit of time, but we actually have about 2 dozen thematic models that we have. Everything from aging of population, AI, digital infrastructure.

4:05 spk_0

Are they ETFs or are they just?

4:07 spk_1

These are just models.

4:08 spk_0

We do individualnames

4:10 spk_1

with a basket of 6.To 8 names, but we also have taken some of these strategies into Europe where we’ve got some ETFs as well. One is cybersecurity, the other is sustainable future of food. We had a few others, you know, at one point in time, but those are the two that we have now with our partners overthere,

4:26 spk_0

right? So, are you, is, is, is Tamatica.Uh, a consumer, like, like, is the retail investor gonna go to you or is it an institutional?

4:35 spk_1

So I would say that today it’s primarily, um, institutional clients and RIAs, butAnd I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself. But if we talk, Kenny, let’s say, 2nd half of the year, 4th quarter, we might have something to share.

4:52 spk_0

That’s interesting. I look forward to that. I’d look because now, you know, I’ve, I’ve, I left my years here at the New York Stock Exchange, of which I will say it was 4 decades. Uh, that sounds better than 40 years.For decades sounds better. But I left after being an institutional broker servicing the institutional community, and now I sit on the other side, right? So I’m the chief market strategist at Slate’s Ow Wealth, which is an independent RAA, uh, so I’d be very interested to hear what you have to say come towards the end of the year. So let’s just make sure we mark our calendars already done.All right, so let’s talk about, let’s talk about the markets. So let’s talk about this recent recovery. We had to sell off in April after liberation Day, and many of us got liberated from our money. I like to say, right? But, but some of it’s come back. In fact, you see some of the, some of those names that got absolutely crushed are actually higher today than they were on April 2nd. And so the market has rebounded a little bit. Tell me, first of all, before we get into the Moody’s downgrade and, and China’s now kind of maybe pull back on this whole 90 day thing.Uh, that they announced this morning, but talking about where you think the market istoday

5:56 spk_1

just as we’re sitting here. So, you know, coming out of last week, you know, if we look at the relative strength index levels, S&P 500 flirting with overbought NASDAQ back in overboard territory, not surprising, right? Not at all. We’ve had huge runs in both of those market indices, but we don’t buy the market, right? We pay attention. We’re mindful of the market and where it is, but you know, we’re continuing to look for names that are well.Position based on some of our themes and others that we can be opportunisticin,

6:25 spk_0

right? So what I always love is when someone asks me, is it too late? Is it too late for me to get in the market? Is it too late? I go, it’s never too late to get into the market. A, because there’s always opportunity, but B, tell me where you are in your life cycle. Are you talking about getting in the market for a month or 5 years? Because then there’s always opportunity in the market. Yeah,

6:45 spk_1

I think that’s right. I think you got to be mindful though of not there’s not.Always as much opportunity at any particular time and I think after the rise that we’ve seen, right, if you were able to put, you know, money to work like I co-manage or manage, I should say, the street’s pro portfolio, uh, basket.com’s

7:04 spk_0

pro portfolio,

7:05 spk_1

correct, right. Thank you. And it’s a it’s a real portfolio, 25 stocks, sometimes more, sometimes less

7:10 spk_0

is it a range of sectors? Uh,

7:13 spk_1

it leverages some of the thematics that we have thematico and some other areas that we want, um, purposeful.Exposure. That’s what I will say. We’re not as broad-based as the S&P 500. We don’t have to have exposure in every sector, right? We want companies that are poised to outperform the market

7:30 spk_0

in, in whatever sectors you’re at. So on that portfolio of the 11 major S&P sectors, what are you representing?

7:37 spk_1

Oh,good God, you know, I don’t think of it that way. I, I, I, I hate to shatter that thought. And, and, and the reason I say that is if you get back to thematics, right? You know, think of a company like Amazon.What’s the, what’s the sector? What’s the rightsector?

7:50 spk_0

Yeah, right. You’re right, could fall in a bunch of different sectors, right,

7:53 spk_1

right, or, or Apple these days, or even Disney, you could argue, right? So I, I try not to get caught up in that.

7:58 spk_0

So what’s the biggest in your mind currently? What’s kind of the biggest theme out there that, that investors and, and, and, and traders should know about?

8:08 spk_1

We’re not gonna break any new ground with this, with this revelation, but I would say that today we’reWe stand, especially coming out of where we were, you know, 68 weeks ago and the potential going forward, it’s going to be AI and I say that largely because, yes, we know about Nvidia and Marvel and all these other companies, but I also think about connecting the dots and the ripple effects, right? So if we think about the demand for data center, the construction of data center, we

8:34 spk_0

think about people, you know, sometimes people aren’t thinking like that.

8:37 spk_1

No, no, I know, I know. And it’s, I like one of my favorite things to do, not, not, not to get sidetracked is when you go through earnings season and you read all the transcripts and you pick up all these data points and you literally connect the dots, right? So it’s, you know, there’s the stock that you want, there’s the, you know, math major, 1st, 1st, 1st derivative, second derivative, and sometimes you can use those data points.Up and down, right? So it’s, I just love doing that. I find it very helpful. So I try to do that when we invest in the portfolio, but also tie it back to our themes as well. So for example, if we’re going to build all these data centers, right, you need equipment to build them. You need electricity to power them. So, you know, if you were to say, well, Chris, it sounds like you might be long, you know, I rentals or Vulcan materials or eaten.And waste management has to haul all this crap away. Uh, yes, yes, yes, yes.

9:31 spk_0

Well, what about names like Dominion and CEG that are getting into the nuclear space, right? Because the utilities.

9:37 spk_1

Now nuclear is interesting, right? So we own the, the Van Ek, um, I’ll botch this name, but it’s the Vanek uranium and nuclear ETF, and we have a nuclear model over at Tomatica. Now you need to be careful with this, right, because I want to benefit from companies.And the spending they have. So when I think about Dominion Power, Duke Energy, the utilities, uh, at least as it relates to building out the electrical grid, they’re spenders. So I’m not gonna buy them, right? It’s almost like if you want to, um, buy the 5G build out, you’re not gonna buy AT&T because they need to spend to build the network. I wanna.By the companies that are benefiting from that spending, that kind of brings us back to Eaton and there are some other names out there,

10:21 spk_0

that’s interesting. I hadn’t thought about it that way,

10:23 spk_1

right?

10:24 spk_0

That’s why we’re talking. That’s why we’re talking. I appreciate that. Wait, so talk to me also about quantum computing. Is that a theme at all that that makes sense or does it not yet? You

10:34 spk_1

know, it’s um.There’s a lot of potential themes out there, right? And you kind of need to hit a tipping point, right? And there’s sometimes there are individual stocks that are going to be disruptive, but there’s not, there’s not a fully baked comprehensive theme out there. So like I’ll give you an example. 11 of the companies that we own in the portfolio is Universal Display. They help manufacture the key chemicals that go into organic light emitting diode displays.And we’re seeing widespread adoption. Wait, what kind of displays organic light emitting diodes, excuse me, or OLED displays. Your iPhone has it. You’re gonna start seeing them in a lot more places.

11:16 spk_0

OLED display called OLED

11:18 spk_1

OLEDs, yeah, so you.TVs, smartphones, tablets, um, and a growing, uh, array of automotive interior lighting displays there, and I think even United in their new Polaris cabin is having some nice OLED displaysas well.

11:32 spk_0

So hold that thought one minute because we, we’ll be right back after this short break.All right, so let’s go back to talking about the old because that’s fascinating to me. So talk to me about what’s different, what, what makes that different than the displays maybe 5 yearsago.

11:49 spk_1

Oh, so you’re talking against LCDs or liquid crystal displays. Couple of different things. One, organic light emitting diodes, they are individual pixels, right? So you can.Get deeper blacks, which is great for TVs and, and all of that. Uh, you definitely do, do you, you would pop on the display, right? So there’s that, right? But then at the same time, because it’s or light emitting diode, there it’s actually less uh power consumption.And it allows for thinner displays and as we’re we’ll probably see more of foldable displays. So you’ve looked, you think of Samsung’s Galaxy folding their phones, right, that’s that. Apple is rumored to have one of those in the next few years, foldable tablets, you know, this is kind of where it’s going, and Universal is a key company.In that it supplies chemicals to all the major display manufacturing companies.

12:39 spk_0

That’s what’s it, Universal

12:41 spk_1

Universal display ticker symbol, OLED

12:44 spk_0

OLED. Yeah, that’s interesting. I had not, I hadn’t even heard about these displays. I think that’s great. I’ll have to take a look. Yeah. Wait, let me ask you another question. You made another point is that these displays use less energy,

12:54 spk_1

less power, and, and they’re thinner,

12:56 spk_0

right?

12:57 spk_1

That’s why you like if you notice howThin smartphones have become, you may not notice it’s got a case on them, but you pull off the case, you see how thin they are. You see how thin, uh, Apple’s new iPad Pros are compared to other iPads, the display.

13:11 spk_0

My iPads, I guess 3 years old or so time

13:14 spk_1

to upgrade, Danny,

13:15 spk_0

but it’s pretty thin, but it is in a, it’s in a case itself.

13:18 spk_1

No, no Apple Intelligence in that device.

13:20 spk_0

I know that, but there’s Apple Intelligence in my iPhone, you know what I mean. Speaking about the intelligence, I have to tell you, have you used Grok?

13:27 spk_1

You know, I have used a lot of them, but not Gronk.

13:32 spk_0

I, I, I, I think Gronk, listen, I, I think they’re all good, but Gronk for some reason.Feels better to me. Like when I, when I use it, it just feels better like it, the data it it produces and the, I don’t know where its sources are, um, but it just

13:49 spk_1

feels well, that’s the key though, right? I mean, 100% it’s all about the array of data that it can tap. And if you think of all that, you know, X or Twitter, whatever you want to call it has, that’s a tremendous amount of information.To mine for 100%, but I, I will say this though, that’s also why I don’t think you can rule Google out when you think of what they have in search and YouTube. Yeah,

14:11 spk_0

no, I don’t know. I agree with you. I think the whole thing is fascinating and I think Chat GBD does a great job. Uh, and, you know, when it first started, I was using Chat GBT.

14:21 spk_1

For for

14:21 spk_0

recipes? No, no, no, when I would ask it a question if I need to clarify something, uh, but you can use it to clarify a recipe. Do

14:30 spk_1

you know what else you can do withthat? You can make a recipe, get your ingredients, and then you can export it to Instacart.

14:37 spk_0

OK,

14:38 spk_1

you can. Yes, you can. There’s a tool you have to get, but you can do it.

14:41 spk_0

Oh, no way. Yeah, yeah. Oh, that’s interesting. I never thought about that. Anyway, what I’ll tell you is that, so then when I, when they put crack on the Twitter grok on the Twitter platform.Um, and you’re a premium user, then it, you know, the little buttons right there at the bottom and you, you pop it open. Here’s the only thing I’ll say is if I ask it one question and I’m still in that same thread and then I ask it a different question, it’ll tie it, it’ll try to tie the second question to the first question and keep the theme going when it’s two separate thoughts. And so I always have to.You know, check out and then check back in and start a new thread so that it doesn’t, it doesn’t continue to try to create that same. I

15:19 spk_1

think you should tell Elon this. Yeah,

15:20 spk_0

well, OK, Elon, listen. All right, so let’s talk about is there hype or what’s real and this whole AI thing that he’s now done in that Trump did, he just came back from the Mideast, had some massive conversations with some of the some of theYeah, the country, United Arab Emirates, uh, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, uh, that they are, they are all plunging deep into AI, building massive data centers over there in the middle of the desert. Uh, does that concernyou?

15:49 spk_1

Concern? I don’t think that’s the right word. I think that, you know, why would we think that AI and the data center build out is only to be right.So that that’s the way I think about it, you know, technology is global, right? We’re we’re not the only country with smartphones, right? So I, I’m not surprised that this is going to happen. I think it’s got some great implications. Um, you know, again, a lot of the names that we just talked about, some, some of them on the construction side are more US based, but if we think about Nvidia, Marvel, and the like,

16:18 spk_0

this is great. Yeah, no, I, I think there’ll be huge beneficiaries of what’s going on.I mean, especially if you hear the, you know, the conversation, the commitments kind of what they’re looking to do, and they want to be a player in the space and they should be,

16:30 spk_1

right? But back it up too though. So, you know, a couple of months ago, I think, um, Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong said, oh, I see a $1 trillion build out in data center. This is all part of that. 100%. And, and I think we’ll hear more from other countries, you know, over time. And I, and I suspect that asWe use AI more as it gets um in the enterprise more more devices, right? What’s gonna happen? You’re gonna need more data centers. You’re gonna need to upgrade the digital infrastructure,

16:59 spk_0

but it’s more energy demand, they talk about wane, energy demand is not waning. I think there’s a massive oversupply of, of energy, which is fine, but I don’t think demand is waning at all.

17:11 spk_1

I don’t.I mean if we’re talking electrical energy, 100% right

17:15 spk_0

just not happening. Right, let’s talk real quick about kind of we came through the first quarter or growing, I think they’re growing what about 15% year over year. Is that what the number was, uh,

17:25 spk_1

it’s so full year 2025, right? That’s what you’re talking about.

17:29 spk_0

Well, what the first quarter?

17:30 spk_1

Oh,

17:30 spk_0

the first quarter, yeah,

17:31 spk_1

I think,

17:32 spk_0

I think that’s somewhere up in the double digits. Yes,

17:34 spk_1

yeah, I think that’s right.

17:35 spk_0

What do you think about the second quarter now?

17:37 spk_1

Uh,well, I’m a little more concerned about the 2nd quarter. Yeah, well, we’ll see the full impact of tariffs, right? We’ll see potential price

17:44 spk_0

retailers are gonna come out, you know, any day now soon. They’re gonna start to report. So it’s gonna be interesting, you know, uh, uh, the Walmart CEO made that comment about passing on these price hikes, these tariffs on the consumers, and Trump right away, you know,

18:00 spk_1

I saw that.

18:01 spk_0

Well,

18:02 spk_1

it wasn’t even that though. You remember a couple of weeks ago where Amazon was going to list the impact of tariffs and the administration got on, got on them and they backpedaled pretty,

18:11 spk_0

you know, the argument was, why didn’t you do that during the Biden years when inflation was running at 9 9.4%. Why didn’t you break it out and show what that impact was?

18:19 spk_1

I think that’sa little harder to quantify than thantariffs.

18:22 spk_0

OK, it might be, except prices were going up every month. Prices are going up. I mean Paris, they’re gonna go up once and then

18:28 spk_1

adjust. No one’s arguing about what happened during the Biden years. We all know we all lived through my wallet was a little lighter. So, but, but again, I think companies are responding to this because they, you know, people are concerned. And I, and I, and I understand that. But I also think though that if we, the concern I have is this, OK.When was the last time you went to the grocery store, Kenny, and you got a box of cereal or you got a box or bag of coffee and prices were going up and then those prices you were paying came down as other prices and pressures came down. I haven’t seenit yet. It doesn’t happen.

19:04 spk_0

I haven’t seen it yet. Yeah, I go to the, I go to the, I go shopping. I listen, I know little secret. I love to go groceries. So do I. I don’t know what it is. It’s like a treasure. I love to go grocery.

19:14 spk_1

It’s a treasure hunt. Yeah,

19:15 spk_0

yeah. So I haven’t seen that yet. Yeah, you’re

19:17 spk_1

never gonna see it. Just like a pound of coffee, just like a pound of coffee comes in a 10 to 12 ounce bag and a pound of coffee last time I thought was

19:25 spk_0

supposed to 16 ounces. Yeah, right. They do the same thing with peanut butter, that you know they put that hole in the bottom of the of the of the jar a little bit bigger. It’s less peanut butter, so it’s the same price. I get it, you know, but I just, I, I, I think it’s, I think unless there’s a full blown recessions.Then I don’t think you’re gonna see prices come down. They’ll stop going up and then once again, people just kind of get used to it, right? So just hoping that wages start to increase.

19:48 spk_1

Right. So what I’m wondering just about retailers, so near term, I, I think there’s gonna be a little bit of pain for them, right? I think we’re gonna have to watch their margins. We’re gonna have to see, are they gonna announce further price increases? I think they will. What’s the impact of what we’ve seen, uh, at the ports and, you know, supply shortages in the short term, butIf we do get these trade deals and tariffs are ultimately brought lower, then the question

20:12 spk_0

becomes, does the price go? They

20:14 spk_1

don’t. And if they don’t, what does that mean for their margins? Margins go back up, right.

20:17 spk_0

Butif they don’t, if the, if the tariff deals are not necessarily as onerous as they were made out to be, and it doesn’t look like, by the way, that it’s, that’s gonna happen.I think they’re not gonna be as onerous as that’s thegoal.

20:29 spk_1

The goal is to reset global trade. That’s

20:32 spk_0

right, which I think is OK. I think it’s OK to have these conversations and renegotiate trade agreements that are decades old. The world changes. So I, so I have no problem with that. But if they’re not as onerous, if some of these companies started raising prices and then the, the tariffs aren’t nearly as bad, to your point, are they gonna come down? Is Trump gonna call people out and say, Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa,

20:53 spk_1

that’s a greatquestion. Great question. I don’t know. I mean, because.And this is, this is not a popular thought, but ultimately, companies are responsible to their shareholders 100%,

21:02 spk_0

right?

21:03 spk_1

So if they’ve, if they can improve their profits and drive their EPS,

21:07 spk_0

which I think is exactly Walmart’s not responding. Walmart’s responding to their shareholders. They’re not responding, you know, they’re not saying they’re going to raise prices because they’re trying to stick it. They want to maintain their margins for their shareholders. I mean, let’s, let’s, let’s call for whatever it is, no, no, 100%, right?Anyway, listen, it, it has been a pleasure. I, I hope we get to do this again. I want you to come back in 3 or 4 months and revisit this whole conversation. I look forward to it. We’re going to see what they’re doing over in the Mideast, what’s happened here in the United States, what tariffs have and have not done, and kind of where we stand. And

21:36 spk_1

maybe we’ll have some thematic stuff to talk about.

21:38 spk_0

I hope so. In the meantime, you know, I, I end every, uh, podcast with a recipe. And so today it’s spring now in New York City. It’s spring across America. So I want to introduce the spring pasta. Now this pasta.It is a vibrant celebration of the season, right? It’s featuring an al dente Ditalini pasta tossed with tender asparagus, sweet peas, and sauteed leeks and shallots, a creamy sauce born from mascarpone cheese, a basil pesto, and fresh parmigiana. It coats every single bite. You add a splash of lemon juice to just awaken all the flavors. Pair that with a chilled glass of Pino Grigio. My favorite is Santa Margarita, and it’s a fresh, elegant dish that captures the essence of every.spring in every mouthful. You can scan the QR code on the screen for the full recipe and you’ll thank me later. Now look, that’s a wrap for today’s trader talk, but the conversation keeps going. You can subscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. You got questions or topics you want covered, email us at tradedertalk@yahoo Inc.com because I’m always listening. Until next time, stay sharp, stay disciplined, and stay in touch. Take good care.

22:54 spk_2

This content was not intended to be financial advice and should not be used as a substitute for professional financial services.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *