Will US export controls weigh on chipmaker?


00:00 Speaker A

Wait is almost over. Nvidia set to report its first quarter results on Wednesday, May 28th, after the market close. Here’s what investors have their sights on. Let’s get to Yahoo finances Dan Howley. Hey, Dan.

00:14 Dan Howley

That’s right, Maddie. We’re expecting Nvidia to report earnings per share of, uh, sorry, 88 cents on revenue of 43.3 billion. That would be a jump from 61 cents and 26 billion in Q1 last year. Now, Nvidia’s shares have been kind of on a roller coaster since the start of the year. There’s been issues related to export controls, the AI diffusion rules that the Biden administration put in place before leaving office, fears over exports, excuse me, tariffs, but that seems to be kind of waning at this point. The Trump administration did away with the Biden AI diffusion rules. But they do say that they’re going to put some other kind of regulation in place. They haven’t kind of illustrated what that might be. The other thing is that they’re allowing them to sell their chips to countries like Saudi Arabia, as well as the United Arab Emirates. We saw the news reports when Trump was in the Middle East that they’ll be taking part in the project Stargate in the UAE. And then in Saudi Arabia, they’re expected to sell hundreds of thousands of GPUs over the next five years. So not, you know, exactly this year, but in the coming years. And as for Stargate, well, it depends on if that ever really kind of gets off the ground or not. There’s been some funding stuff going on there with the US project. But for Nvidia, that’s good news. Now, we did see Jensen Wong during Computex, the trade show in Taipei, Taiwan, criticizing the US’s export rules saying that they’ve been a failure so far, and basically that they’re helping more or less Chinese companies build their own chips and kind of reach the ability that Nvidia has to offer, or may reach the ability that Nvidia has to offer when it comes to the power of their chips. So we’ll see what that means for Nvidia and the Trump administration, whether or not they’ll ease export controls to China. There have been reports from Reuters that Nvidia’s working on a new chip that they would be allowed to sell into the Chinese market. Remember, we’re expecting a 5.5 billion dollar charge that Nvidia’s going to have to write down based on the Trump administration’s H20 rules, basically Nvidia’s H20 chip not being allowed to be sold in China is hitting Nvidia’s bottom line to a degree. So we’re expected to see obviously healthy growth. It depends on what Wall Street though kind of is anticipating as far as, you know, blow it out of the water, right? They had a beat and raise going for a while. The growth is it’s still going to be over 100% in some cases, but you know, it’s not the 200, 300% that we had seen. And after earnings, we’ve kind of seen investors pull back a little bit afterwards as a result of that. So I think it’s about getting those expectations in line, and then really what we can see from Jensen and company as far as what they expect in the coming months with regards to regulation or tariffs. We know that the Trump administration is forming an investigation into whether or not they should have tariffs on semiconductors. So there’s still a lot going on with regards to Washington and how that impacts Nvidia. But for now, it still seems though, the big tech companies, the Microsofts, Googles, Amazons, Metas, they’re still on board with spending the billions of dollars they said at the beginning of the year on their infrastructure. That’s still in line, so Nvidia’s going to be the beneficiary of that for sure.

06:59 Speaker A

Dan, you know, Nvidia did struggle to start the year and we talked a lot about it. There were different kinds of puts and takes. Two big themes, Dan, we discussed were, you know, there were concerns about DeepC, the Chinese startup. There were concerns about Big Tech and whether, you know, maybe they were going to stop spending as much on building out their own AI infrastructure. Do you think those two concerns, Dan, as we head into this next earnings report, are they in the rearview mirror?

07:45 Dan Howley

For Big Tech, yes, I think that people are, you know, kind of they’ve seen that despite, you know, the tariff noise and questions about the macro environment, that these companies have said that they’re going to spend the money that they said they were going to spend originally. So that doesn’t seem to be a concern in the near term. As far as DeepC goes, Nvidia’s kind of spun up this narrative that these kind of models that require a longer time to think benefit from more processing power. And so, as a result, when you use a model like DeepC on a higher-end Nvidia chips, you’re going to get better results because it’s able to process more information. So that’s been the ongoing theme that we’ve seen out of a lot of tech companies, really. These kind of processing models that they’ll be able to kind of get more information through the models, and that’ll benefit them. So, you know, I think for DeepC, for the most part, that’s no longer a concern. I think DeepC is a concern for Washington and that impacts the export controls, but not necessarily for Nvidia itself.

09:40 Speaker A

Dan, thank you, sir. Appreciate it.


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