00:00 Speaker A
Josh, uh, this, uh, analysis coming to us via Todd Sohn over at Strategas. He’s a technical analyst and he crunches the numbers on ETFs on a regular basis. So this seen through the prism of the ETF landscape, he’s really found that health care is deeply out of favor right now. So let’s look at the chart first and then we’ll talk about a few items related to it. So what he looked at was the S&P 500 sector relative performance. It’s the you’re looking at the percentiles here, and it’s the last five years of history going all the way back to 1972. So what you’re looking at here is that effectively industrials performance over the past five years has been in the 78th percentile relative to the S&P 500. How common is it for it to trade like this? Well, it trades like this with the S&P 500 about 78% of the time. So relatively regular performance for industrials, tech, energy, communications, and financials. But then you get to materials and discretionary, which have been trading a little bit more differently, utilities, which have been outperforming, staples, and then you get all the way to health care down here at 2.7%. In other words, since 1972, only 2% 2.7% of the time has health care done this poorly relative to the S&P 500 over that rolling five-year period. What does this have to do with? Well, this is a five-year period, but we know what’s been going on in the past six months or so has been the decline, and even more recently really, the past three months or so, the decline of United Health care, which is a very heavily weighted health care stock. So that has partially to do with it. One of the other things he mentions is that the S&P 500’s percentage weight of health care now is below 10% of the overall S&P 500 for the first time time since 2000. He said if you look at the equally weighted health care sector, it peaked in December of 2021, and he also points out it’s the third largest sector in terms of assets under management in ETF. So when this sector does poorly, a lot of people hold it relative to others, and so it is not necessarily good news. From a technical perspective, does it mean things are going to bounce back? Hard to say here, but it is fascinating to see that that group has done so poorly on a relative basis, at least the money held within these ETFs, Josh.
04:20 Josh
All right. Thank you, Julie.