Housing market faces ‘frozen’ outlook amid elevated rates


00:00 Speaker A

To what degree does the deficit risk impact home buyers given how that impacts the activity that we see in the bond market?

00:13 Speaker B

Well, um, affordability has been very difficult for new home buyers because you haven’t seen with rising rates, you haven’t seen a commensurate drop in home prices. Um, so you’ve higher rates and high home prices, which makes affordability really, really difficult. Um, I think that a couple things will will happen are happening. Um, you’ve had, um, rocket mortgage said in its first quarter, uh, earnings that what happened in April, they have not seen since just after the the great, uh, uh, financial crisis in 2009 where you saw a confluence of high rates, volatility, and double digit declines in mortgage applications. I mean, that’s terrifying. So you have a really bad, uh, first part of this, uh, the the spring housing season, the strongest spring, you know, spring is the strongest part of the the home season. 50% of home sales happen in the over 50% of home sales happen in the spring. Um, and I don’t think it’s improved much. So I think this is going to be a, uh, a problematic year for housing. So affordability is one thing. And then the other issue is over 60% of homes are owned by households over 60, and they’re tapping into home equity, which means they’re not going to be pressured to sell. So you’re in this, uh, uh, uh, like frozen, um, home market, um, and I think, uh, that’s problematic. Now, one point I’m going to raise about that, the National Association of Realtors, um, estimates that 18% of the GDP comes from the housing market. So that’s going to put a the fact that the housing market has been so weak this spring is going to put even more pressure on GDP.

03:35 Speaker A

Meredith, great overview as always, really appreciate you making time for us this morning.

03:41 Speaker B

Thanks, Madison.


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