00:00 Jared Blikre
Bitcoin is known for volatility, but there is a new kid on the block making crypto look downright sleepy. Leverage single-stock ETFs. Buckle up, the ride just got bumpier. I’m Jared Blikre, host of Stocks and Translation. First up, let us define the trend. A single stock ETF is an exchange traded fund betting on just one stock, often with built-in leverage or inverse exposure, meaning you can use it to bet on the stock’s decline. If they’re leveraged, a key feature is that there is a daily reset. More on that in a minute. Now, let’s see how big the party has gotten. This is total assets in leverage long ETFs over the last decade plus. Today, over $100 billion are parked in these turbocharged funds. Investors are clearly leaning into risk. Next up, here’s a warning sign. This is the leverage long assets relative to inverse ETF assets going all the way back to 2011. We’ve highlighted some of the past ratio levels because extreme readings, they have marked turning points in stocks. We started 2025 at a very frothy 12 to 1 ratio, briefly retreated as several indices fell into bear markets, but now we’re back to 8 to 1. This is a yellow flag waving high for the second half of the year, especially if this ratio goes higher. And the single stock ETF craze, it is exploding. Volume has ratcheted higher and skyrocketed over the last year. Check out these setups. Retail and active traders have clearly found a new favorite tool. The money is just pouring in, but so is a risk. And here’s how much risk we’re talking about. Check out the volatility of leverage single-stock ETFs, like Super Micro, Palantir, Tesla, and Nvidia, compared to Bitcoin, a notoriously volatile asset. These products make Bitcoin look tame, barely above the S&P 500 and treasuries. Single-stock ETFs are the new kings and queens of volatility. And finally, a quick history lesson all the way back to 2011. Back then, the S&P 500 was modestly higher earlier in the year. The new, the relatively new, three times leverage ETF SPXL was up nearly 26% at the highs. Great, right? But then August hit. S&P downgraded US debt, volatility surge, and by the year end, the regular S&P ETF was basically flat to down while the leverage fund lost nearly 15%. That daily reset I was talking about a few minutes ago means leverage ETFs can actually lose a lot of money compared to the market that they’re based on, and this tends to happen when volatility rises. And guess what? Moody’s just dropped a similar debt downgrade on the US markets today, and they are much more resilient this time around the markets are. So this is not a bear market call, but certainly an analog worth keeping in mind. And remember, with leverage ETFs, it’s not about the destination, but the volatility along the way. Tune into more Stocks and Translation for more jargon busting deep dives. New episodes on Tuesdays and Thursdays on Yahoo Finance’s website or wherever you find your podcast.