00:00 Speaker A
Stock futures falling this morning as the stock rally loses momentum. Weakening data and warnings from the Fed weighing on investor sentiment. And our next guest says, you don’t want to buy the dip. Joining us now we’ve got Alex Morris, FM Investments, CEO and CIO. Alex, good to have you here in studio. So, take us through why you don’t want to buy the dip especially given the run back that we’ve seen off of the lows of, potentially the lows of the dip.
00:44 Alex Morris
Good to be here. Well, lows so far, right? And I think the reason why we don’t like buying these moments are there’s no certainty. Every time we hear of a new plan, it’s another 90-day plan. And there’s a whole patchwork of these going together, but eventually, markets are going to call the administration to task and say we need to know what’s going on.
01:15 Speaker A
You don’t think that’s already happened?
01:17 Alex Morris
Well, I think they’ve they made very clear what they felt about tariffs and we saw some reprieve. But I haven’t seen any policy come through. We haven’t seen anything passed by Congress. All we’ve seen is a handful of, we’ll kick the can down the road. We saw a plan from the UK that is not a model for anybody else. But I think what markets did like was they were heard. And the concern coming into April was, Donald Trump wasn’t going to listen to the stock market. He wasn’t going to listen to the bond market and he wasn’t going to listen to his own cabinet. Well, we learned that he will, which was a good thing. But we’ve yet to really see anything permanent, and I think markets are going to want to see that before they start to take off. There is going to be some bounce right now, but I think we’re going to see a lot more volatility ahead. It’s nice while the president’s getting airplanes and feted with camels that look like they’re a scene out of Disney’s Aladdin. It’s another thing when that stops. And that will have to stop at some point.
02:32 Speaker B
So, it sounds like you don’t believe in a Trump put until you see final policy on the table, which I understand. But what should investors do with that framework then? Do they sell into this rally to get into cash? What is the play off of that?
02:48 Alex Morris
We still like cash on the short end, you know. We think you’re still earning 4%. Those numbers are going to come up. We do think there’s going to be some opportunities at the longer end of the curve soon. When those, right now, the 30 years trading about five, the 10-year about four and a half. We think those numbers probably another 50 basis points on the way up and then we’ll start to come back down as the Fed will, will have opportunities to cut later in the year. But right now, it’s choose your asset allocation and stay put. Don’t try to time this market because as we saw in April, if you were getting a cup of coffee, you missed 10% of a market rally. And it’s very hard to try to buy into these moments when they’re going to take milliseconds to play out, not days or weeks.