By coinnews 
00:00 Speaker A
90 minutes into the trading day. Stocks are higher. Well, they were across the board. As of right now, we are mixed. The Dow just flat barely to the downside here. But overall, we’ve seen some recent gains on trade optimism. Wall Street. Do they still have all the things, all the concerns about growth? As President Trump’s looking to negotiate trade deals, that’s the big question. Here joining us now. Our next guest sees growth slowing in the US. So where are the opportunities in a slower growth environment here with more? We’ve got Noel Corum, senior portfolio manager at Agile Investment Management. So where where are those opportunities in a slower growth environment from your perspective?
01:26 Noel Corum
Yeah, I will caveat that with. We think this is a broader theme of shifting from this US exceptionalism trade to global growth and looking for those opportunities elsewhere. But slower growth environment, as you just alluded to, isn’t always bad for fixed income. So at Agile Investment Management, we look, we’re also looking for opportunities in the US. But we think in Europe, they just launched a big fiscal package. We think that’s going to be a broader trend for European growth over the next five years. It’s a long-term trend. We think European credit and risk assets should do well as Europe steps in with a bigger fiscal package. We’re also expecting more stimulus and fiscal spending in Canada and Asia, so looking for opportunities outside of the US to help diversify our risk assets.
03:01 Speaker A
And so when you’re thinking about the diversification and among risk assets right now, does that mean more broadly that we’re kind of emerging and getting back into a kind of risk on appetite?
03:47 Noel Corum
Yeah, I think what you saw earlier in April was spreads blew out a ridiculous amount, really didn’t make a whole lot of sense. But I think at that point investors were under risk. And we thought at that point that the risk to being under risk was greater than being over risk. So we looked to add risk going into that and did really well here because we do think that as these tariffs deescalate, we’re actually looking at a US economy that is service based. Remember, it’s a service based economy that’s doing well. The company fundamentals are still strong. Consumers still well supported. Yes, we might see some hiccups in growth, some slowing in growth, but we still think it’s well positioned while also looking for opportunities diversify globally.
05:08 Speaker A
And so when you think about that, where are you kind of identifying within the equity markets right now, perhaps some of the companies that might have the most global exposure as well as investors are kind of looking through their own portfolio seeing where they already have that global exposure versus where they need to add on.
05:51 Noel Corum
On the fixed income side, again just looking at sectors there, so energy and banking are more US centric. The companies that blew out back in April really haven’t come in and caught up to the rest of spreads. So that’s an opportunity within the US. And then globally consumer cyclicals, defense names, auto makers, a lot of the names that were blown out because of tariffs. We really felt like the bad news was priced and after you dug into the details a little bit, you really were compensated for the risks that you were taking.
06:57 Speaker A
And so with that in mind, as we’re thinking through the rest of not just this earning season, but more broadly, what CEOs, what executives are saying about what they’re looking for in trade deals and in the global environment, what are you listening for?
07:28 Noel Corum
We’re listening for details in general. We more clarity at this point and certainty is better. So we’re just watching the policy, looking at the details, taking it back to the hard data. I think that’s important. It’s easy to get lost in the soft data, right, and then lost in the forward guidance. But at the end of the day, we don’t actually know a lot. We don’t know where we’re going to land. So taking it back to the hard data, looking at what companies are doing thus far, how the consumer is thinking and spending, all of it comes down to thinking about the hard data and where we where we go from here.
08:23 Speaker A
And just lastly while we have you here, as we’re thinking about not just what is taking place within equity markets, but given what you were talking about within some of the fixed income space, as you’re thinking through kind of the the duration or where you want to be on the curve knowing that in years past we wouldn’t have gotten this far in the conversation without some type of Fed mention, and we’re finally getting there now in this conversation, six minutes into it. All that considered, what are you anticipating from the Fed and how that ultimately passes through to what part of the curve investors should feel comfortable being invested in right now?
09:27 Noel Corum
We like being on at the belly and in. Being in the long term, we think that the curve might steepen out a little bit more here just given where inflation’s headed, where kind of the term premium of the curve is headed. Our Fed call is for one, maybe two cuts this year again on slower growth, but we really don’t think we’re in a full-on cutting cycle. And CPI yesterday kind of told us that as well. We haven’t seen the hard data turn down. I think that’s what the Fed’s going to have to respond to at the end of the day.
10:14 Speaker A
Noel, great to see you. Thank you so much for joining us here today.