00:00 Speaker A
Stocks surging to end the trading day and they’ve been rallying since President Trump told investors a month ago that it’s a great time to buy. Yahoo Finances, Julie Hyman, joining me now with a closer look in our chart of the day.
00:18 Julie Hyman
Yeah, remember that, Josh, when the president posted on social media that it was a great time to buy? And at the time, it didn’t feel like a great time to buy to many investors. That was because we were still living under that sort of worst-case scenario tariff regime, the reciprocal tariffs that the administration had imposed upon a host of different countries around the world. They were quite high in many, many cases. Well, after he posted that that morning, the administration then came out and said that they were going to get rid of some of those tariffs, and we saw stocks rally from there and then sort of continue up from here. Now, as of Friday, the S&P 500 had rallied about 14%. The president posting again, saying that people should be buying stocks on May 8th. So the total gains since that bottom that we saw on April 8th or so has been 17% at this point. And we’ve been having the discussion throughout the day, especially in the wake now of this announcement that the tariffs, the worst-case scenario tariffs against China, are going to be reduced. We’ve been having this discussion about what is now priced into the market. For the year to date, the S&P 500 is off a little less than 1%. So not much changed on the year. And if you look at where strategists are forecasting the S&P 500 to end the year, they’re really all over the map in a pretty dramatic fashion. JP Morgan has the lowest estimate on the street at 5,200. Wells Fargo, which hasn’t changed its forecast, is still around 7,000 for the S&P 500. 6150 is the highest of the reduced forecast. That’s from Deutsche Bank. So as you can see, really, there is a wide range of outcomes that strategists are talking about. They might change this forecast, of course, now that the tariff picture has changed. Just as Goldman Sachs came out just a little while ago today, and said the recession odds have now fallen to 35% from 45%. At one point, they were as high as 55%. So again, this rapidly changing situation. And we got a couple of different views on what is priced in today. We talked to Christian Chan from Assetmark, and he talked about that he thinks there is still upside potential from here. Ryan Kelly of Hennessy is not as convinced that we are going to see the earnings growth this year to be able to support continued strong returns from these levels. So yes, we’ve had this bounce, but where we go from here, there is a really broad dispersion of opinions, Josh.
04:57 Josh
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