00:00 Speaker A
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged later today, but investors will be closely watching Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 2:30 p.m. Eastern for insight into how the central bank is navigating the impact of tariff policy on the US economy. Joining us now with what to listen for, Fed correspondent Jennifer Schonberger. Hey, Jennifer.
00:18 Jennifer Schonberger
Good morning, Matty. That’s right. Investors will be listening closely to Fed Chair J. Powell’s press conference this afternoon to see if his views have evolved at all on the central bank following President Trump’s repeated calls for preemptive rate cuts and threats to fire the Fed chair. Trump in recent weeks has referred to Powell as quote, a major loser, Mr. Too Late, and a total stiff in a series of social media posts. He’s also said that Powell’s quote, termination cannot come soon enough, before later clarifying that he has no intention of removing Powell before his term as chair is up next May. In the months ahead, Powell and other Fed officials expect to wrestle with which side of their dual mandate to focus on: inflation or maximum employment, as Trump’s tariffs potentially push inflation higher and possibly act as a drag on economic growth. Market watchers expect Powell to reiterate that the central bank will hold rates steady until they gain more clarity on the impact of Trump’s policies. One thing to watch for is whether Chair Powell takes more of a hawkish tone, if nothing but to keep long-term inflation expectations in check. The Fed views that as critical as consumer expectations for inflation in the short term have shot up. And based on one survey, the University of Michigan survey, long-term inflation expectations have also moved up. Expect Powell to shy away from the notion of preemptive rate cuts as well, something that President Trump has repeatedly been pushing the Fed for. The Fed would really need to see a deterioration in the labor market for them to begin cutting, though it would be good to look for whether Powell lays out any possible scenarios of what that might look like, akin to what Fed Governor Waller has laid out. Back to you.
03:05 Speaker B
Jennifer, while we have you, turning to the trade front, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has announced trade talks with Chinese officials will take place this weekend. What do we know there?
03:19 Jennifer Schonberger
It’s so funny, Brad, because yesterday when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin testified on Capitol Hill, it seemed like the notion of talks with China were nowhere on the radar. Then last night, we learned that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US trade representative Jameson Greer will travel to Switzerland and speak with their Chinese counterparts this Saturday and Sunday. We learned initially in guidance from the US Treasury and the USTR through twin press releases last night that both gentlemen will be traveling to Switzerland starting on Thursday to meet with Switzerland’s president to talk about trade and leveling the trading level, the playing field for trade as part of all these trade negotiations that are going on. At the same time, we, they learned that the Chinese would also be in Switzerland. And so that’s how talks came into being. We later learned from the Treasury Secretary, who appeared in an interview on Fox News, that these are going to be initial talks. They’re going to talk about what to agree to talk about. This is more de-escalation versus the so-called big trade deal. Mnuchin telling Fox News that, quote, we have shared interests. This isn’t sustainable given that tariffs are 145% on China, that we don’t want to decouple from China, and what we want is fair trade. Now, Mnuchin is set to testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 a.m. this morning where he is sure to be peppered with many questions on this topic. Guys.
06:03 Speaker B
Jennifer, you mentioned that it is funny, but a lot of nervous laughter happening right now. Wall Street is relieved, right? They’re breathing a sigh of relief.
06:28 Jennifer Schonberger
Exactly.
06:31 Speaker B
Thanks so much, Jennifer. We’ll be checking back in later on.