00:00 Speaker A
What about how you’re thinking through tariffs? I mean, obviously we’re waiting to hear from the company, but what do you wanna know, uh, from Apple in terms of tariffs and and what ultimately do you think the effect could be?
00:18 Speaker B
Yes, so Julia, I think we’re not too concerned here about tariffs because, um, I mean, of course as you know the vast majority of Apple’s products are assembled in China, uh, and the the US announced, uh, earlier this month, uh, I mean actually in April, of course, to that they will exempt smartphones, computers and other consumer electronics, uh, from reciprocal tariffs but they are still subject to the 20% uh, tariff when they’re imported from from China. Now Apple has already started to diversify away from China and they will continue to do so. Um, they’re probably going to accelerate the pace of which they do so, actually. And the 20% tariff is actually a strong incentive to continue that shift and um, I’ve seen reports that Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India by the end of 2026. India today, just to put some context around that represents already about 20% of iPhone manufacturing, um, and I think it can already cover in a half of the US market. So assuming that the pace of deployment of capacity in India accelerates, that will probably take about a year, you know, for Apple to grow the Indian supply chain enough to fully cover the US market. So at the end of the day, um, I think you know, that’s that’s very consistent, you know all that news flow around India. And lastly, the US administration is very transactional, you know we we think it’s legitimate to expect some level of concessions, um, given Apple, you know is committing to invest 500 billion in the US. Um, and at the end of the day the administration, you know is setting the bar at a maximum leverage to start, uh, the negotiations. Um, and has no intention in our view of harming unnecessarily and excessively US businesses and US consumers. So the bottom line is that we’re not too concerned about tariffs. Uh, there there are other more fundamental challenges that Apple is facing that worry us.