By coinnews 
00:00 Speaker A
As traders digest earnings and mixed signals on tariffs, we’re taking a peek at what investors should keep watching. We can’t have Mark Newton here and not do a little bit of a deeper dive into the charts. So here, we’re taking a look at the S&P 500 year to date. We put up a candlestick. You’re going to draw, uh, draw a little bit on here to show the trend. I mean, we’ve seen the last few days, the uptick that we have seen. So what are you watching in terms?
00:27 Mark Newton
Right. Yeah, it’s what I like to say, the third time’s a charm. We have tested this level right near 5475 about three times since April the 9th. Uh, that was the day of course we saw the big breath explosion. So now we’re actually getting over that. So that’s actually a very encouraging sign. You also see the entire trend from mid-February. Also was right around 5,500, 5,500 is a big deal for the S&P. Uh, you know, my thinking is that today’s move is very encouraging. I mean, the volume’s been very good, advance decline, the breadth has been phenomenal. And, and I think there’s reasons to, to actually think what’s happening now suggests a very good possibility that our spring lows are in place and it should not be tested again. So even if it’s choppy in the near term and it likely can be without any sort of resolution on tariffs, we have a lot of work to do. Momentum has been very negative throughout this whole thing. We only have about 25% of all stocks above the 20-day moving average. So there is some work to do, but to see technology lead the way it’s doing off these lows is really a good sign.
02:20 Speaker A
All right, we’re going to get to technology in a minute, but I want to touch on something you just mentioned, which is breath. The number of stocks that are going up versus the numbers that are going down on each individual day. And you can, I mean, you can see pretty clearly on this chart, the spikes that we’ve been seeing, although it’s, it’s, it’s volatile, right? You go way up on breath one day and then you come way down the next day.
02:54 Mark Newton
Yeah. Well, this is just the ratio of say advancing stocks as a percentage of the total. The ratio got to levels that happened twice in the last nine days. They reached the highest level here has been seen since 2022. That’s really encouraging at a time when everybody is so pessimistic about, let’s wait till the tariffs end or we get some clarity. All this uncertainty, why would I want to invest? Well, the market is sending a sign right now that, you know, breath is, is really clicking in the gear at a time when many are still very pessimistic. So that’s a good sign. We saw the percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving averages move from 2%, now it’s almost 50% in literally about two and a half weeks. So investors have to pay attention. Don’t always listen for tariffs, ignore the politics, pay attention to what’s happening in the market, volume, breath, sentiment, and specifically technology. It continues to play a leading role heading into these mag 7 earnings.
04:13 Speaker A
Yeah, I want to go to technology specifically here. So I’m again going to take a look at the year-to-date. Here’s the XLK that we have been watching here and look at a year-to-date for the XLK. So this is the technology spider, the ETF that tracks that tech sector within the S&P 500. And it looks similar to, but not identical to the S&P 500 chart. So that breakout that you talked about, you know, but the breakout here maybe isn’t as clear as it is for the spy, is it? Just eyeballing it.
05:01 Mark Newton
Yeah. For me, it’s actually clearer. I mean, tech obviously dominates the S&P with Apple and Nvidia, but we see XLK having actually officially broken this entire downtrend. Uh, volume and breath are very good. We’ve only had of course, you know, Tesla thus far. We get, uh, you know, alphabet tonight and Intel, we’re heading right into mag 7 earnings. And so, you know, my thinking is the capex spending have really been reaffirmed by, by alphabet, by Amazon. That’s a good sign at a time when everybody’s negative. You know, the sentiment data has turned so pessimistic, but yet these companies are reaffirming. It’s still going to be a very, very good spot for earnings. I think this quarter. So I like tech. Uh, the fact that it’s leading off the bottom after it got hit so hard, it is a really good sign.
06:14 Speaker A
And I am curious whether we’re talking about tech or whether we’re talking about the S&P 500. Okay, so the bottom may be in, but like what’s the range going to be because it’s not like we’re breaking out to new highs right now.
06:31 Mark Newton
Right. Yeah. No, that’s a great question because we’re not going to go back to the new highs, you know, anytime soon in my view. It is going to take some time. So initially, this area between really 5550 and 5600 are really going to be important. I’m, I’m skeptical we get over late March highs, which means, you know, you might have a few percent on the upside and then we probably have to churn a little bit. And then when we see more resolution at that time, we can start to really make further progress, but there’s no guarantee that we’re going to go into recession in my view. Technically S&P held exactly where it needed to. 4835. If you look at the S&P, it is a 50% retracement of the entire move up since 2022. And that’s a really, really good sign overall. If we have a weekly chart of that, or going back over the last few years, you can see that we’re exactly where we bottomed was a really key point. And, and really, uh, that’s, that’s a key area. So my anticipation is that is not going to get undercut. Might be choppy, but in general, if you have a long-term perspective, you know, technology is a much better valuation. Uh, the earnings, I think is going to come in just fine. And, and you know, that the tariffs are going to be dicey, but I think we can get through all this.