Why you should ‘sell the rally’ as ‘hurricane’ Trump hits


00:00 Host

It’s time now for today’s strategy session. US stocks rising this morning despite the sell America trade gaining traction on Wall Street. So, is now the time to buy into US stocks? Joining us now, Ken Mahoney, Mahoney Asset Management CEO. The big question for me this morning to you, Ken, do you buy the dip or do you sell the rally?

00:18 Ken Mahoney

Sell the rally. I mean, we have so many things coming out, just a report that two minutes there of everything that’s going on in the world, like we want to be heroes. This reminds us of 2022, not the political side of it, but you know, raising rates, 75 base points, 75 base points. And our goal is to get through the other side of it unscathed as much as possible. So, we’re actually saying selling to rallies. Again, like we had the 2,968 point Dow Jones rally, sell into it, try, you know, try to wait for a better setup. Right now there’s way too many forces upon us. I mean, we have Hurricane Donald that, you know, could tweet just moments from now and watch everything come undone again. And the problem really is, you know, there’s finger pointing with the president, and yesterday, you know, we saw it with Powell. Look, we have not been the biggest supporters of Powell back in 2018 talking about, you know, increasing rates only to emergency rate cut, transitory. That didn’t work out so well, but here it’s actually Donald Trump is the one with, you know, spill in aisle six, spill in aisle nine, spill in aisle nine. Oh here, here Powell, clean this thing up. And it doesn’t work like that. So, really the president really needs in short order to get a deal. We keep on hearing like, oh we’re close to a deal, close to a deal. It’s like a used car salesman telling his boss like, oh I almost got him. Oh, I almost got them. He needs to get a deal done, otherwise this is going to continue to unravel. So, the short answer to your question, we would sell into rallies. By the way, some of the biggest rallies you’ll have, the biggest rip your face off rallies are in bare markets, which we’re in.

03:12 Host

Ken, it also raises the question, which deal? I mean we’re talking about multiple countries that still have tariffs, and China, of course, having the large and lion’s share portion of those tariffs, the second largest economy in the world, and one of our largest trading partners. So, all that considered, which deal is the market actually going to look to to say, okay, this starts to set some precedent for us to see how the negotiations are going to go for elsewhere. Oh yeah, and by the way, other countries are going to catch wind of the deals that are being made for some of the other counterparts that are waiting for tariffs to come off the table.

04:10 Ken Mahoney

Yeah, there’s a lot to untangle there. But I would start obviously with Japan. And look, this is done incorrectly to start with, right? There’s a big cannon approach and that little list that he showed everybody. You know, we were thinking like rational, maybe 10% tariffs and we kind of work from there, but instead 47%, 104%, it’s just like, you might as well just, you know, ban imports from China. I like to see a deal with Japan. I’m not sure that can happen or not because at least that kind of solidifies Asia. The way to do this though, obviously in hindsight, but it should have been thought about is kind of moving moving up, you know, the lowest hanging fruit would be, let’s say Argentina or Mexico, or maybe one of our trading partners, and then, you know, eventually get to China. But instead this big blast has really put us in in a in a big way. So all the things that investors are feeling right now, unfortunately they shouldn’t really feel like this, but hey, 72% of Americans that voted for Trump own stock directly or indirectly, and they feel like just get passed along, especially treasury secretary’s comments, secretary, you know, treasury secretary comments like, oh don’t worry about it, you got to have some pain and so forth. Uh they’re furious. They really feel like they got stabbed in the back. They did not ask for a world trade war out of this Trump administration 2.0. They wish they had Trump 1.0 from what I’m hearing.


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