By coinnews 
0:00 spk_0
2025 was supposed to be the year the white collar job market got hot again. Instead, job seekers are coming up empty handed, with almost half of Americans feeling stuck in their current jobs and staring at salary deflation if they consider making a move. Those lucky enough to have stable employment are holding on tight. Joining us now is Elise Gould, Economic Policy Institute senior economist. Elise, it is good to see.So there was this interesting recent story, at least in the Journal, and it was kind of talking about how it used to pay to switch jobs, and now, according to the Journal, at least, not so much. The Journal notes the salary difference between those who stay in their roles and those who change jobs has collapsed to its lowest level in 10 years. What is going on there, Elise? What explains that dynamic?
0:49 spk_1
Well, you’re absolutely right. Then when we think about how to bid up your wages, how to get some leverage with your current employer, the best way to do that is to look for another job and either take that job and get a better offer, or come back to your boss and say, hey, I’m gonna leave if I don’t get this kind of matching offer from you. And what we’re seeing is that people are staying put more, so they’re not looking for those other offers, they’re not quitting.And that lower hire’s rate also means that the that lower quits rate also means that the hire’s rate is lower, so there’s just less churn in the labor market. There’s less people looking. They’re not feeling very optimistic about being able to find a better job for themselves, and I think there’s a number of reasons.That might be happening. One is the economic uncertainty right now. Absolutely there’s uncertainty. People just want to sit tight. We also saw that there was a lot more job switching in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. So in 2021 and 2022, there were many people that were doing this job switching, and maybe they found a better match and maybe there isn’t that better match out there right now for them.
1:52 spk_0
And at least, you know, we, we, we, we talk about this kind of, you know, less optimism, less, less churn, do we know at least we have a line of sight, is that, is that fairly broad based or are there kind of meaningful differences we can see in between demographics, between different industries and verticals?
2:09 spk_1
Yeah, a lot of the data doesn’t offer that kind of demographic cut. I would love to see that, you know, right now the data that so many of us are paying attention to is what’s happening with the layoffs. So with hires and quits, a little bit softer than it has been, that hasn’t been a problem because layoffs have also been historically low. And now there’s been this uptick in layoffs not just among federal workers but also contractors and now announced layoffs at very you.More broadly in the private sector, so that hasn’t played out in the data yet, but it’s certainly something that we want to be looking at to see where, you know, who is maybe nobody is safe. I don’t know yet what that’s going to look like.
2:46 spk_0
Elise, you know, Elon Musk and those those boys, they appear pretty serious about cutting, you know, what is going to happen and what does it look like if and when we really do see meaningful layoffs start to happen here in the public sector.
3:00 spk_1
Well, it’s gonna be huge. That has huge ramifications not only for those workers, for the services that they provide and for, you know, the the the what that means for all the private sector jobs that lead into those public sector that feed.Of the public sector employment and so what we’ve already seen, I think the leading edge of where we’re going to see those cuts is in unemployment insurance claims. We saw that jump up in the last couple of weeks about 300% over the same weeks last year. We already saw that in the federal employment data. There’s been a drop there already, I think in coming weeks.And in the next couple of months we’re going to see bigger effects of of those layoffs not only in the federal sector but in the broader economy aswell.
3:41 spk_0
So bottom line, Elise, and I know, listen, there’s a lot of moving pieces and variables, but as an economist, as you think out here, you see the labor market evolving how over 2025.
3:53 spk_1
I’m not optimistic unfortunately, given there’s policy uncertainty, so we don’t really know how that’s going to play out, but certainly what we’re seeing on the horizon is that this is just the tip of the iceberg and there is more trouble brewing. Absolutely. I, I’m, I’m sort of disappointed to report that I think that there will be some kind of a recession on the horizon, maybe not in 2025, butUm, unless there’s a big change in the policy direction that this country is heading, unfortunately, I think there’s going to betrouble.
4:23 spk_0
Elise, we’ll leave it there. Thank you so much for joining the show today. Appreciate it.