Safe haven status of Treasurys faces Washington headwinds


00:00 Speaker A

I’m curious your thoughts on the safe haven status of US Treasury bonds, especially in the context of President Trump posting about a potential termination of Fed chair J. Powell, unclear if he was talking about when his term is up or a more immediate termination here. Uh, to what extent does a statement like that and also the policy uncertainty from Washington put the safe haven status of the US at risk?

00:30 Speaker B

Yeah, I mean the way I’ve been kind of talking about is the stability premium that we’ve enjoyed for a very long time is is in question right now. Um, but I’ve generally been a bit of a seller of this theme, um, because it’s tough to figure out where you go. I mean, there are network effects to owning treasuries. I mean, Treasuries are still where the liquidity is. Uh, it’s a very, very deep pool of assets. There’s no other foreign sovereign bond market that could absorb uh, the kind of flows the Treasury does. Um, and it’s very hard to move away from. Um, I’ve actually been liking it to the move away from Twitter. I mean, multiple times we’ve heard people say we’re going to Blue Sky, we’re going, you know, we’re going to threads. It just never quite seems to happen because you get over there and realize that nobody else is over there. Um, and so it’s it’s just very hard to pull away from treasuries. uh, in in any large way. Now, I think over the next few years, that’s going to be a theme that we watch very, very closely. And I do think on the margin, um, you know, these long overweights that people have held in US assets may start to level out a bit. Um, you know, like I said, I’m a bit of a seller of that, but even marginal moves, um, you know, if you if you have a global bond portfolio and you go from 40% US Treasuries to 35, if a lot of people do that, uh, it could still be pretty meaningful. So, definitely a theme we’ll be watching.

02:45 Speaker A

Like, great to see you this morning. Thanks so much for taking the time here with us on set.


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