00:00 Speaker A
Nvidia sinking. So after the chip maker disclosed that it would take a $5.5 billion dollar hit from the US government’s surprise new controls on its semiconductor exports to China. For more on the latest, let’s welcome now Daniel Newman, Futurum CEO. Daniel, it is great to see you here on set. Appreciate it from Texas. Um, you know, before J. Powell, frankly, this was the story of the day. It was chips, it was Nvidia. Nvidia is down here, Dan. It’s not about 10%. It’s getting clobbered in today’s trade. I guess two, two questions to start. One, Dan, were you surprised by that news when you saw those headlines? And two, do you think down 10%, is that move justified in your opinion?
01:06 Daniel Newman
Yeah, first of all, nobody should have been surprised by this move. Really the administration’s been giving the signal that it was going to clamp down. Now, what was interesting is this week, there was a bit of gyration because they cut this deal, they announced 500 billion dollars of AI supercomputers being built here in the United States. And then a day later, he pulls back on this new export licensing requirement.
01:45 Speaker A
That that, you bring that, Dan. That is an interesting point because there were some folks who thought Jensen Wong was going to be kind of shielded from this. Right?
02:02 Daniel Newman
They made a deal. I had a few reporters actually hit me up, do you think there was some tip for tat going on. And first of all, I think Trump needs to show, President Trump needs to show that there is no tip for tat. So whether it’s, you know, Tim Cook bringing more manufacturing here, whether it’s TSMC coming here. But I actually think on the other side of this, and maybe we come back to this, is that I actually think creating some certainty with the, with the community, the business community, about what type of benefit they can expect by onshoring and bringing manufacturing back here. I think that would be a great start. Having said that, national security, economic security, and AI are tightly correlated. Us giving the chips to China, whether it’s the tuned down chips or the best chips coming through intermediaries, which they shouldn’t be getting. This is something that’s giving an advantaging China. There’s a lot of people out there that are like, oh, well, this is going to only push their resolve. Do you think China is waiting because we’re sending Nvidia chips, they’re not investing in Huawei and building their own chips? You can be absolutely certain that they are. This war, this trade war, is largely being fought on the grounds of long-term economic domination. Long-term economic domination will only be had if we control the technology trade. Nvidia is at the forefront of that trade.
04:15 Speaker B
And what do you think of from an investor standpoint? Here you have Nvidia falling yet again, 8 to 10%. You know, look what happened over the last couple days. It had recovered from its lows, right? And a lot of investors who got in short term experienced that bounce. Where, where do you think that looks like this week?
04:43 Daniel Newman
Yeah. I, I look at that line of people around the corner at $150 that just couldn’t wait to buy. And you go, what is really changed? Well, first of all, you’ve got GPUs melting over at, at X and at OpenAI. There’s so much demand there. Could Nvidia pivot some of its capacity, not focus so much on building specialized products for China, and make sure we meet all the capacity and demand that’s out there for companies that are in the US that are trying to build? You’ve got $325 billion of CAPEX. And it’s been reiterated. So whether it’s been Sunder Pichai, whether it’s been Satya Nadella, they’re all planning to spend. And I genuinely believe, Sylvia, that the companies with, you know, the big operating leverage are going to look at this pullback as the moment to build AI infrastructure out. Because when we come out of this, and we will come out of this, there will be deals made. Calling that on the record right now. It may be a tough couple of months. When deals are made, we will see the economy accelerate. And those companies want to build the future and have that AI infrastructure in place. So the Googles and the Microsofts and the Amazons, they’re going to buy Nvidia. Um, and one other thing, if I, if I may, I find it very interesting that everybody thinks that China and their push to build Huawei is going to be so successful. When AMD came out with a competitive product, no one believed they could build the software. Broadcom’s making chips for the hyperscalers and everyone said, well, that’s great, but they don’t have CUDA. So it’s not going to work as well. But suddenly, everybody believes that China and Huawei is going to build the CUDA competitive product that’s going to undo Nvidia? I believe in China, I believe in their resolve. I don’t believe that they have as much competition or much competitive capability today as people are suggesting.