By coinnews 
00:00 Speaker A
What is your outlook, Mike, for the economy in in 2025? And how would you, you know, sort of rank your recession odds?
00:15 Mike
Yeah, I think it’s a 50/50 shot at this point in terms of recession hitting this year. That’s quite high. Um, you know, in a typical environment, it’s probably 10, 15%. Uh, so that is elevated. And it’s a shame because it looked like the Federal Reserve essentially had this soft landing in the bag, uh, in this huge tariff disruption, which is not over. Um, has uh, really thrown a monkey wrench into the soft landing. It puts the Fed in a terrible position where now they have to worry about downside risks to growth. At the same time, there are short-term upside risks to inflation. So if the Fed is sort of paralyzed here and the economy’s weakening, you know, that really does increase the risks of a downturn, and you can see that uh in various credit market indicators. High yield debt spreads have widened very sharply, uh, from quite narrow levels on a historical basis. But that’s one of several things that you tend to see coming into a weaker growth period with, you know, with higher risks of a downturn.