00:00 Speaker A
Terry, I want to end with you on tax cuts. Senator Thune saying that the Senate is aligned with the house that many senators do want to see more than 1.5 trillion dollars in tax cuts. How likely do you think it is that we could get those policy sweeteners that the stock market has been looking for sooner rather than later?
00:18 Terry
Uh I I my guess is this Madison, uh politically, I think it’s almost impossible. Uh you look at things like Medicaid, that’s a third rail for an awful lot of an awful lot of Republicans. And uh yeah what they’re more focused on is the biggest tax cuts possible using a current policy baseline, which sounds wonky, but what it means is that they get to vastly pump up the amount of tax cuts without having the pain on the uh on the funding cut side. Number one. Number two, uh neither Democrats nor Republicans have any appetite for this. Republicans big view is uh last year was that they cut 1% from the 30% of discretionary spending. So these are the by and large not brave heart types who want to take an axe to anything. And thirdly, uh did they all want to get reelected? And uh and what’s going to end up happening here is Trump’s going to drop the political hammer on them and uh and force them into the same box that the Senate’s in right now.
02:03 Speaker A
Jason, just want to get your own and and actually you know what Terry, let me put this to you first and then Jason, I’ll get your reaction. Terry, what does the next 90 days look like realistically?
02:16 Terry
Well, realistically the next 90 days looks like continued negotiations, probably some wins, uh continued jawing with uh with China, maybe without result. Uh other uh geopolitical hotspots continue on. Doubtful we’ll have a you know, some sort of Ukraine deal that’s acceptable to everybody. Uh doubt that the Middle East is going to go away and those are both and doubt that we have a deal with Iran which is uh these are all geopolitical flash points that China plays massively into. So I think it’s going to be very unsettled for markets and said so frankly before the tariffs even kicked in.
03:27 Speaker A
Jason, just want to get your reaction. Are we due for our early summer surprise in the next 90 days?
03:37 Jason
Uh we’re going to get surprised over and over and over again in the next 90 days. Um what I don’t know is if those are going to be um happy surprises or sad surprises. Um but we’re going to get more of it and that volatility itself um is a problem and is bad.