00:00 Speaker A
In my mind, the idea of a reciprocal tariff was, if you charge us, we’re going to charge you the exact same amount. Not more, not less. Now, what I saw was, they didn’t charge a hundred percent reciprocal tariffs. But then everybody said, ah, the formula they used was wrong. Talk to me your impression of what we just saw happen.
00:28 Speaker B
Well, I I don’t even know what to say about that formula because every credible source that I’ve read says it it’s just made up. It’s not on any basic economic because it’s not when you look what the real tariffs are. I mean, EU, I forget the exact numbers but it’s like 2% versus two and a half percent and we’re coming back with 30, 40, 50% tariffs.
01:01 Speaker A
Okay, but could some I think Scott Besos is a pretty smart guy. I think he had to be in the room when they were talking about this whole reciprocal tariff thing. So the idea that they’re so off as some people said, you know, they just pull them out of thin air. I thought to myself, did anyone think that other people weren’t going to recognize that the math wasn’t right? That’s what’s so, that’s what’s so unnerving to me because I’m not sure if I I don’t know what to believe at the moment.
02:11 Speaker B
Well, I think that gives it’s an issue of credibility in the current administration because I just watched two flash polls like over the weekend with CEOs. It’s now almost two-thirds think we’re going into recession. fully, you know, a third of them think they will likely have to cut jobs, the others don’t know yet. You know, and so then, um also a flash uh checking on the street, recession odds have gone from 23% at the beginning of the year to 56 57%, CPI, you know, was supposed to be they were looking at, you know, 2.7, it’s up almost or 2.6 or 2.8, but now up to 3.7 and the same with GDP now less than a percent.
03:16 Speaker A
We’re going to get the March numbers, you know, We’re going to get the March numbers soon.
03:25 Speaker B
Yeah, and PPI and the latest University of Michigan sentiment Friday which what’s your guess?
03:38 Speaker A
Right. Well, it’s been it’s been fairly negative of late, right?
03:52 Speaker B
Right.
03:53 Speaker A
Um but let me ask question, do you think we’re going do you think we’re headed for a deep dark recession?
04:03 Speaker B
I think the probabilities have increased a lot. And I think whether it’s moderate or not we’re starting from a good place, right? I mean, the economy, you know, Trump inherited a very strong economy. We start the year out very positively and the positive effects obviously, and it’s not for good reasons, but oil prices are down. They’re down big. And if they go down much lower though, it’s going to be tough for our producers who a lot of the shale producers have a much higher break even like at 55. We’re not so far from that. And obviously, the 10-year rate has come down. That’s helpful. We’ll see probably some good refi for mortgages this week.
04:43 Speaker A
Yeah. They’re down big.
04:53 Speaker B
No.
05:01 Speaker A
We’re not that far from that. We’re at 59 or 60, right?
05:04 Speaker B
And for the government.
05:06 Speaker A
Right. So there are good things happening but for bad reasons. It’s because people are looking at reduced growth.
05:14 NA
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