00:00 Speaker A
I mean, we do expect that the labor market will cool off, uh, in the coming months. You know, again, the the US economy is an ocean liner. It is the the largest most diversified economy on the planet. So tipping it over takes an extraordinary set of of circumstances. So we just saw with the jobs report last week that, you know, still looks okay. Now, there’s a number of reasons that, you know, warm weather and the lack of the federal firings showing up that it may have come in above expectations, but it’s a good reminder that look, the US economy demonstrates resilience beyond expectations again and again. So, um, right now, and this is again another reason for Fed caution, um, we do see resilience in hiring so far, but, um, ultimately that’s going to be the proof of the pudding because recessions are defined by job losses. And when and whether and to what extent we see companies really retrenching on hiring is going to be the test of the economy.
02:56 Speaker B
Yeah, Steve, want to let you comment on that. Yeah, I mean, just real quick. I mean, what you see right now is anxiety dramatically increasing in the US economy around firms and businesses. When anxiety increases, they they basically freeze up. They become paralyzed. They’re going to stop hiring. They’re going to shed workers. And so maybe that does force the hand of the Fed to do something. But how remarkable is it that the Fed looking not at underlying economic drivers, but looking at the White House in terms of what it’s doing, that this was, you know, this was an act that was avoidable, um, you know, when you look at all of the steps that Fed has taken to give a soft landing to avoid a recession. And in one fell swoop, everyone’s revising their estimates right now to build in, just as Julia said, the likelihood of a recession because of the policies we’re seeing. It’s a remarkable moment in history. This will be a moment that we will remember for decades as being one of those moments that is very, very hard to explain in how much wealth destruction in the United States. And as Bill Ackman and others have said, the status of the United States was sort of kicked over the hill overnight.