By coinnews 
00:00 Speaker A
Here with the Trading Day’s top takeaways is Yahoo! Finance’s Jared Blikre. Uh, Jared, give it to us here live on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Uh, sloppy close, messy close, all kinds of superlatives across the board today.
00:24 Jared Blikre
Yes, lots of superlatives, lots of comparisons to 2020. And so that’s why I’m calling my first takeaway the ghost of COVID. And if we go to the Wi-Fi interactive, I’m going to show you the chart that I’m looking at here. Uh, here’s year-to-date S&P 500. And you can see how it just fell off a cliff right here. But if we take a look at the 10-year chart, I want to draw a line from the pandemic lows in 2020 all the way through these lows. And we’re right at this trend line here. But, if we draw a line over here, this this resistance, this potential resistance here, is what stopped the market in 2021. And now we might act now might act as support. However, we are not quite there yet. So I think we got a little ways to go. 4800 is kind of my line in the sand for the S&P 500, might bounce from here, but I talked to some traders, and Monday is looking like primetime crash day if we don’t get some kind of positive catalyst over the weekend. Not necessarily the base case, but it is definitely set up that way. So that’s what we got to be thinking here. And again, 4800, my number, 4800 is my number. And then here’s the Nasdaq. I just want to get to that real quickly, because the Nasdaq is actually at that very same support line. And if I draw that here, you can see just reached that today. So Monday, I think we either bounce a bit, and we say, “All right, the worst is over for now,” and then maybe we take another leg lower, or possibly, uh, we we experience something reminiscent of 2020.
03:19 Speaker A
about how yesterday there was not a huge move in volatility market, looking at what’s happening with the VIX. That really changed today, and and how did that change the character of this sell-off in your view?
03:50 Jared Blikre
Yeah, I’m I’m really hot on the VIX right now. That leads to my second point, VIX schmix. Uh, I’m not sure what that means, but it seems appropriate, because I don’t know what anything means right now. But let me take a look at the VIX because the character lately has been a bit different than we’ve seen in recent times. Here is the year-to-date chart. And what you’re going to see here is uh, let me just highlight what happened in March, because we had a bit of a drawdown. It took about two weeks to get to that level, to get to the 30 level. And then it took another couple weeks to come back down. Usually, usually, it’s a case that the VIX is taking the elevator up, and then the elevator down. And this is evident if we take a look at the six-month chart. We can see this is what happened around that nasty Fed meeting in December when Powell turned surprisingly hawkish. But that’s not what we’re looking at today. The VIX is much more comfortable camping out, and as Steve Sosnick reminds us, the VIX is not a fear gauge. It is a look at 30-day volatility in the S&P 500 options. It represents institutional hedging, 30 days out. This is not a retail market. It is an institutional market. And what the VIX is saying is we are we are structurally pricing in more volatility. That is, uh, we are pricing in structurally more volatility for the rest of the year. We can also see, um, let me just put a 10 year so we can see the COVID high. And we are not anything approaching that right now. Put some lines in there. Uh, however, we are inching closer. And so, anything worse happens next week, uh, we could see a higher VIX, but most likely due to the size of the VIX spike that we’ve seen, it probably comes down a bit, but not fast, and I don’t think to see, I don’t expect to see sub 30 for a little bit of time here.
06:57 Speaker A
And let’s just finally get out of here on some seasonality, and in a market like this, when everything is breaking, uh, I don’t think the historical comparisons are going to look awesome either.
07:25 Jared Blikre
That’s right. Uh, seasonality generally favors the bulls because stocks tend to go up, as you, uh, as you well know, Miles. So back to the Wi-Fi interactive, seasonality bucked is my headline. And right here, I’ve been tracking this since the beginning of the year. I have my market map for the VIX. And I had to adjust the scale because this almost looks like an error. That is what the VIX actually did. What we were expecting it to do, what it’s done based on history, is kind of settle down into May. And then that would allow an April rally, a May rally, and then kind of ratchet up towards the end of the year. But this is is entirely different game here. And we can also see the S&P 500 market map. That has just fallen off. Here in blue is what has happened this year. Normally, we would be heading up. April is a very bullish month, if not the most bullish, but instead, we are doing the opposite. So the bottom line is, when seasonality is bucked, when we don’t have seasonality working in our favor, that means something bigger is afoot, and I think it’s obvious what that is, but we should not be expecting 20% returns for this year, the third year in a row. That’s the bottom line.